The tight clustering of implied probabilities around 37% for over a dozen teams reflects the exceptional parity across the 2026 Série C first phase, where 16 clubs remain in contention for the G8 with just one round remaining. Recent results, including Botafogo-PB’s 3-1 win over Guarani, Santa Cruz’s 2-0 victory against Caxias, and Floresta’s late surge, have kept points bunched between 30 and 24 for the leading pack (Brusque, Botafogo-PB, Paysandu, Inter de Limeira, Guarani, Ferroviária, Santa Cruz, Floresta and others). No side has established consistent dominance, with frequent draws, narrow margins, and form swings preventing separation. The second-phase quadrangular among qualifiers will then decide the champion and runner-up, amplifying uncertainty given the knockout format, travel demands, and potential for upsets among evenly matched sides. Lower-table clubs like Confiança and Itabaiana sit far adrift with negligible realistic paths.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedVolta Redonda 72%
Amazonas 38%
Botafogo-PB 38%
Brusque 38%
Volta Redonda
72%
Amazonas
38%
Botafogo-PB
38%
Brusque
38%
Caxias
38%
Ferroviária
38%
Figueirense
38%
Floresta
38%
Guarani
38%
Inter de Limeira
38%
Ituano
38%
Maranhão
38%
Maringá
38%
Paysandu
38%
Santa Cruz
38%
Ypiranga
38%
Barra
17%
Itabaiana
16%
Anápolis
16%
Confiança
15%
Volta Redonda 72%
Amazonas 38%
Botafogo-PB 38%
Brusque 38%
Volta Redonda
72%
Amazonas
38%
Botafogo-PB
38%
Brusque
38%
Caxias
38%
Ferroviária
38%
Figueirense
38%
Floresta
38%
Guarani
38%
Inter de Limeira
38%
Ituano
38%
Maranhão
38%
Maringá
38%
Paysandu
38%
Santa Cruz
38%
Ypiranga
38%
Barra
17%
Itabaiana
16%
Anápolis
16%
Confiança
15%
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed participant to finish as runner-up of Brasileirão Série C for the 2026 season per the rules of Brasileirão Série C (e.g., the participant is eliminated), the corresponding market will resolve to "No".
If multiple teams are declared as second-place finishers, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
If this event is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or a runner-up has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source will be official information from the Brasileirão Série C; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 1:33 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.cbf.com.br/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed participant to finish as runner-up of Brasileirão Série C for the 2026 season per the rules of Brasileirão Série C (e.g., the participant is eliminated), the corresponding market will resolve to "No".
If multiple teams are declared as second-place finishers, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
If this event is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or a runner-up has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source will be official information from the Brasileirão Série C; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution Source
https://www.cbf.com.br/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The tight clustering of implied probabilities around 37% for over a dozen teams reflects the exceptional parity across the 2026 Série C first phase, where 16 clubs remain in contention for the G8 with just one round remaining. Recent results, including Botafogo-PB’s 3-1 win over Guarani, Santa Cruz’s 2-0 victory against Caxias, and Floresta’s late surge, have kept points bunched between 30 and 24 for the leading pack (Brusque, Botafogo-PB, Paysandu, Inter de Limeira, Guarani, Ferroviária, Santa Cruz, Floresta and others). No side has established consistent dominance, with frequent draws, narrow margins, and form swings preventing separation. The second-phase quadrangular among qualifiers will then decide the champion and runner-up, amplifying uncertainty given the knockout format, travel demands, and potential for upsets among evenly matched sides. Lower-table clubs like Confiança and Itabaiana sit far adrift with negligible realistic paths.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated


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