Recent Japanese inflation data and yen weakness have reinforced the Bank of Japan’s focus on upside price risks, with July core CPI (excluding fresh food) rising 1.8% year-over-year—its fastest pace since January—while the underlying measure reached 1.9%. The June policy rate hike to 1% and subsequent communications have priced in further gradual tightening, yet markets now assign only a 21% probability to a 25-basis-point increase at the October meeting. This reflects expectations that any near-term move is more likely at the September 17-18 gathering, given accelerating import-cost pass-through and supportive government signals. Traders view the 78% odds of no change in October as consistent with the BOJ’s measured pace of roughly one adjustment every few months following the latest data and communications.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo change 78%
25 bps increase 21%
50+ bps increase 1.3%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$46,491 Vol.
$46,491 Vol.
Oct 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
78%
25 bps increase
21%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 78%
25 bps increase 21%
50+ bps increase 1.3%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$46,491 Vol.
$46,491 Vol.
Oct 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$2,640 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$2,810 Vol.
<1%
No change
$23,835 Vol.
78%
25 bps increase
$14,304 Vol.
21%
50+ bps increase
$2,901 Vol.
1%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent Japanese inflation data and yen weakness have reinforced the Bank of Japan’s focus on upside price risks, with July core CPI (excluding fresh food) rising 1.8% year-over-year—its fastest pace since January—while the underlying measure reached 1.9%. The June policy rate hike to 1% and subsequent communications have priced in further gradual tightening, yet markets now assign only a 21% probability to a 25-basis-point increase at the October meeting. This reflects expectations that any near-term move is more likely at the September 17-18 gathering, given accelerating import-cost pass-through and supportive government signals. Traders view the 78% odds of no change in October as consistent with the BOJ’s measured pace of roughly one adjustment every few months following the latest data and communications.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$46,491End Date
Oct 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent Japanese inflation data and yen weakness have reinforced the Bank of Japan’s focus on upside price risks, with July core CPI (excluding fresh food) rising 1.8% year-over-year—its fastest pace since January—while the underlying measure reached 1.9%. The June policy rate hike to 1% and subsequent communications have priced in further gradual tightening, yet markets now assign only a 21% probability to a 25-basis-point increase at the October meeting. This reflects expectations that any near-term move is more likely at the September 17-18 gathering, given accelerating import-cost pass-through and supportive government signals. Traders view the 78% odds of no change in October as consistent with the BOJ’s measured pace of roughly one adjustment every few months following the latest data and communications.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$46,491End Date
Oct 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Japanese inflation data and yen weakness have reinforced the Bank of Japan’s focus on upside price risks, with July core CPI (excluding fresh food) rising 1.8% year-over-year—its fastest pace since January—while the underlying measure reached 1.9%. The June policy rate hike to 1% and subsequent communications have priced in further gradual tightening, yet markets now assign only a 21% probability to a 25-basis-point increase at the October meeting. This reflects expectations that any near-term move is more likely at the September 17-18 gathering, given accelerating import-cost pass-through and supportive government signals. Traders view the 78% odds of no change in October as consistent with the BOJ’s measured pace of roughly one adjustment every few months following the latest data and communications.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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