Recent inflation readings near 4% PCE, driven by Middle East energy shocks and tariffs, have sustained hawkish Fed signals in July minutes and June projections showing a higher median funds rate path, while the stable labor market at 4.2-4.3% unemployment and softening post-July data have tempered near-term hike odds. With the policy rate holding at 3.50-3.75%, the close 46.5% implied probability on zero 2026 hikes versus 38.5% on one reflects trader debate over whether supply-driven price pressures will fade enough to avoid tightening or persist into year-end meetings, amid September data releases as the next key catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
0 (0 bps) 45%
1 (25 bps) 39%
2 (50 bps) 16%
3 (75 bps) 2.4%
$221,616 Vol.
$221,616 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 bps)
45%
1 (25 bps)
39%
2 (50 bps)
16%
3 (75 bps)
2%
4 (100 bps)
<1%
5+ (125+ bps)
<1%
0 (0 bps) 45%
1 (25 bps) 39%
2 (50 bps) 16%
3 (75 bps) 2.4%
$221,616 Vol.
$221,616 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 bps)
$84,929 Vol.
45%
1 (25 bps)
$34,525 Vol.
39%
2 (50 bps)
$55,740 Vol.
16%
3 (75 bps)
$23,307 Vol.
2%
4 (100 bps)
$12,308 Vol.
<1%
5+ (125+ bps)
$10,807 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent inflation readings near 4% PCE, driven by Middle East energy shocks and tariffs, have sustained hawkish Fed signals in July minutes and June projections showing a higher median funds rate path, while the stable labor market at 4.2-4.3% unemployment and softening post-July data have tempered near-term hike odds. With the policy rate holding at 3.50-3.75%, the close 46.5% implied probability on zero 2026 hikes versus 38.5% on one reflects trader debate over whether supply-driven price pressures will fade enough to avoid tightening or persist into year-end meetings, amid September data releases as the next key catalyst.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Market Opened: Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ET
Volume
$221,616End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent inflation readings near 4% PCE, driven by Middle East energy shocks and tariffs, have sustained hawkish Fed signals in July minutes and June projections showing a higher median funds rate path, while the stable labor market at 4.2-4.3% unemployment and softening post-July data have tempered near-term hike odds. With the policy rate holding at 3.50-3.75%, the close 46.5% implied probability on zero 2026 hikes versus 38.5% on one reflects trader debate over whether supply-driven price pressures will fade enough to avoid tightening or persist into year-end meetings, amid September data releases as the next key catalyst.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volume
$221,616End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent inflation readings near 4% PCE, driven by Middle East energy shocks and tariffs, have sustained hawkish Fed signals in July minutes and June projections showing a higher median funds rate path, while the stable labor market at 4.2-4.3% unemployment and softening post-July data have tempered near-term hike odds. With the policy rate holding at 3.50-3.75%, the close 46.5% implied probability on zero 2026 hikes versus 38.5% on one reflects trader debate over whether supply-driven price pressures will fade enough to avoid tightening or persist into year-end meetings, amid September data releases as the next key catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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