Elevated inflation pressures from supply shocks and energy prices tied to the ongoing Middle East conflict, alongside a still-resilient economy, form the main driver behind closely matched Polymarket odds of 44.5% for zero 2026 rate hikes and 38.5% for one 25-basis-point increase. The federal funds rate remains at 3.50%-3.75% after the July hold, with futures markets and the June FOMC dot plot reflecting dispersion around a modest tightening path by year-end. Mixed labor data and recent CPI prints have tempered some hike expectations, while three dissents at the last meeting underscore internal debate. The September FOMC meeting and subsequent inflation releases will likely clarify whether policy stays on hold or shifts toward one modest adjustment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
0 (0 bps) 45%
1 (25 bps) 39%
2 (50 bps) 16%
3 (75 bps) 2.4%
$221,616 Vol.
$221,616 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 bps)
45%
1 (25 bps)
39%
2 (50 bps)
16%
3 (75 bps)
2%
4 (100 bps)
<1%
5+ (125+ bps)
<1%
0 (0 bps) 45%
1 (25 bps) 39%
2 (50 bps) 16%
3 (75 bps) 2.4%
$221,616 Vol.
$221,616 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 bps)
$84,929 Vol.
45%
1 (25 bps)
$34,525 Vol.
39%
2 (50 bps)
$55,740 Vol.
16%
3 (75 bps)
$23,307 Vol.
2%
4 (100 bps)
$12,308 Vol.
<1%
5+ (125+ bps)
$10,807 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated inflation pressures from supply shocks and energy prices tied to the ongoing Middle East conflict, alongside a still-resilient economy, form the main driver behind closely matched Polymarket odds of 44.5% for zero 2026 rate hikes and 38.5% for one 25-basis-point increase. The federal funds rate remains at 3.50%-3.75% after the July hold, with futures markets and the June FOMC dot plot reflecting dispersion around a modest tightening path by year-end. Mixed labor data and recent CPI prints have tempered some hike expectations, while three dissents at the last meeting underscore internal debate. The September FOMC meeting and subsequent inflation releases will likely clarify whether policy stays on hold or shifts toward one modest adjustment.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Market Opened: Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ET
Volume
$221,616End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Elevated inflation pressures from supply shocks and energy prices tied to the ongoing Middle East conflict, alongside a still-resilient economy, form the main driver behind closely matched Polymarket odds of 44.5% for zero 2026 rate hikes and 38.5% for one 25-basis-point increase. The federal funds rate remains at 3.50%-3.75% after the July hold, with futures markets and the June FOMC dot plot reflecting dispersion around a modest tightening path by year-end. Mixed labor data and recent CPI prints have tempered some hike expectations, while three dissents at the last meeting underscore internal debate. The September FOMC meeting and subsequent inflation releases will likely clarify whether policy stays on hold or shifts toward one modest adjustment.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volume
$221,616End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation pressures from supply shocks and energy prices tied to the ongoing Middle East conflict, alongside a still-resilient economy, form the main driver behind closely matched Polymarket odds of 44.5% for zero 2026 rate hikes and 38.5% for one 25-basis-point increase. The federal funds rate remains at 3.50%-3.75% after the July hold, with futures markets and the June FOMC dot plot reflecting dispersion around a modest tightening path by year-end. Mixed labor data and recent CPI prints have tempered some hike expectations, while three dissents at the last meeting underscore internal debate. The September FOMC meeting and subsequent inflation releases will likely clarify whether policy stays on hold or shifts toward one modest adjustment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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