Zack Wheeler's dominant return from 2025 thoracic outlet syndrome surgery anchors trader consensus at 65.5% implied probability for NL Comeback Player of the Year. The Phillies ace has posted a 2.92 ERA over 120.1 innings through 21 starts in 2026, with strong strikeout totals and multiple sub-3.00 outings that echo his prior Cy Young contention. Michael Harris II follows at 19.9% on the strength of his offensive rebound to a .294 average, 20 home runs, and 70 RBIs through roughly 124 games after a down 2025 campaign. Brandon Woodruff, Sandy Alcantara, and O'Neil Cruz occupy the next tier at 13.7%, 12.0%, and 11.9% respectively, tied to their injury recoveries and restored production levels. Recent August inconsistencies for Wheeler have not materially shifted positioning ahead of the December resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedZack Wheeler 66%
O'Neil Cruz 10.1%
Sandy Alcantara 8%
Tanner Scott 5.8%
$149,173 Vol.
$149,173 Vol.
Zack Wheeler
53%
O'Neil Cruz
10%
Sandy Alcantara
11%
Tanner Scott
6%
Michael Harris II
19%
Brandon Woodruff
26%
Shota Imanaga
1%
Porter Hodge
1%
Ezequiel Tovar
1%
Sean Manaea
1%
Zack Wheeler 66%
O'Neil Cruz 10.1%
Sandy Alcantara 8%
Tanner Scott 5.8%
$149,173 Vol.
$149,173 Vol.
Zack Wheeler
53%
O'Neil Cruz
10%
Sandy Alcantara
11%
Tanner Scott
6%
Michael Harris II
19%
Brandon Woodruff
26%
Shota Imanaga
1%
Porter Hodge
1%
Ezequiel Tovar
1%
Sean Manaea
1%
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 26, 2026, 5:10 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Zack Wheeler's dominant return from 2025 thoracic outlet syndrome surgery anchors trader consensus at 65.5% implied probability for NL Comeback Player of the Year. The Phillies ace has posted a 2.92 ERA over 120.1 innings through 21 starts in 2026, with strong strikeout totals and multiple sub-3.00 outings that echo his prior Cy Young contention. Michael Harris II follows at 19.9% on the strength of his offensive rebound to a .294 average, 20 home runs, and 70 RBIs through roughly 124 games after a down 2025 campaign. Brandon Woodruff, Sandy Alcantara, and O'Neil Cruz occupy the next tier at 13.7%, 12.0%, and 11.9% respectively, tied to their injury recoveries and restored production levels. Recent August inconsistencies for Wheeler have not materially shifted positioning ahead of the December resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated

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