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Climate & Science·Disease

New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026?

icon for New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026?
Climate & Science·Disease

New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026?

Dec 31

Dec 31

4% chance
Polymarket

$23,360 Vol.

4% chance
Polymarket

$23,360 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares a new COVID pandemic other than COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.Widespread population immunity from prior SARS-CoV-2 infections and vaccinations continues to suppress the risk of a new coronavirus pandemic in 2026, supporting the market's 96.2% implied probability of "No." As of mid-August, CDC data show infections growing in 47 states with an Rt of 1.08, driven by variants such as NB.1.8.1 (Nimbus) and BA.3.2 (Cicada), yet emergency department visits remain very low at 0.4% and overall activity stays far below pandemic thresholds. Official surveillance from the CDC, WHO, and wastewater monitoring indicates seasonal endemic circulation rather than exponential global spread or severe outcomes. A realistic scenario that could shift odds would require a novel variant demonstrating both substantial immune escape and markedly higher virulence, triggering rapid rises in hospitalizations that overwhelm current public health capacity before the year ends.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares a new COVID pandemic other than COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.
Volume
$23,360
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 2:40 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares a new COVID pandemic other than COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares a new COVID pandemic other than COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.Widespread population immunity from prior SARS-CoV-2 infections and vaccinations continues to suppress the risk of a new coronavirus pandemic in 2026, supporting the market's 96.2% implied probability of "No." As of mid-August, CDC data show infections growing in 47 states with an Rt of 1.08, driven by variants such as NB.1.8.1 (Nimbus) and BA.3.2 (Cicada), yet emergency department visits remain very low at 0.4% and overall activity stays far below pandemic thresholds. Official surveillance from the CDC, WHO, and wastewater monitoring indicates seasonal endemic circulation rather than exponential global spread or severe outcomes. A realistic scenario that could shift odds would require a novel variant demonstrating both substantial immune escape and markedly higher virulence, triggering rapid rises in hospitalizations that overwhelm current public health capacity before the year ends.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares a new COVID pandemic other than COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.
Volume
$23,360
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 2:40 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares a new COVID pandemic other than COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 4% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 4¢, the market collectively assigns a 4% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026?" has generated $23.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 6, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026?" is 4% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 4% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.