The Houston Texans' elite defense, anchored by Will Anderson Jr. and returning starters, underpins their 45.5% implied probability as AFC South frontrunners entering 2026, building on a 12-5 finish and nine-game winning streak in 2025 despite offensive inconsistencies around C.J. Stroud. Jacksonville's 26.5% reflects the Jaguars' 13-4 title run last year under Liam Coen and Trevor Lawrence's dual-threat production, though roster turnover at skill positions tempers expectations. The Colts' 21.5% factors in Daniel Jones' return from Achilles injury alongside Jonathan Taylor's workload, positioning them as a competitive but less proven threat. Tennessee's 6.5% aligns with ongoing rebuilding around Cam Ward and a projected lower win total amid a tougher path to contention. Trader consensus highlights a tight top-two race shaped by recent form and defensive edges.