Strong corporate earnings growth, fueled by AI infrastructure spending and broad sector beats, stands as the main driver behind Polymarket traders assigning the highest implied probability (38%) to an S&P 500 close above 8,000 by year-end 2026. With the index near 7,674 in late August, analysts have lifted 2026 EPS forecasts sharply higher—some to 25% or more year-over-year—reflecting resilient GDP, solid labor conditions, and margins near record levels. Elevated inflation (core PCE around 3%) and the Fed’s hold at the 3.5–3.75% funds rate under Chair Warsh, amid Middle East supply shocks, temper expectations but have not derailed sentiment. Upcoming CPI, PCE, and FOMC decisions remain key swing factors for the closely watched range between 7,500 and 8,000.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated>$8,000 40%
$7,500-$8,000 22%
$7,000-$7,500 19%
$6,500-$7,000 12%
$40,126 Vol.
$40,126 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<$6,000
10%
$6,000-$6,500
7%
$6,500-$7,000
12%
$7,000-$7,500
19%
$7,500-$8,000
22%
>$8,000
38%
>$8,000 40%
$7,500-$8,000 22%
$7,000-$7,500 19%
$6,500-$7,000 12%
$40,126 Vol.
$40,126 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<$6,000
$20,722 Vol.
10%
$6,000-$6,500
$2,312 Vol.
7%
$6,500-$7,000
$4,408 Vol.
12%
$7,000-$7,500
$2,534 Vol.
19%
$7,500-$8,000
$4,060 Vol.
22%
>$8,000
$6,090 Vol.
38%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Strong corporate earnings growth, fueled by AI infrastructure spending and broad sector beats, stands as the main driver behind Polymarket traders assigning the highest implied probability (38%) to an S&P 500 close above 8,000 by year-end 2026. With the index near 7,674 in late August, analysts have lifted 2026 EPS forecasts sharply higher—some to 25% or more year-over-year—reflecting resilient GDP, solid labor conditions, and margins near record levels. Elevated inflation (core PCE around 3%) and the Fed’s hold at the 3.5–3.75% funds rate under Chair Warsh, amid Middle East supply shocks, temper expectations but have not derailed sentiment. Upcoming CPI, PCE, and FOMC decisions remain key swing factors for the closely watched range between 7,500 and 8,000.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Market Opened: Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
Volume
$40,126End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETResolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Strong corporate earnings growth, fueled by AI infrastructure spending and broad sector beats, stands as the main driver behind Polymarket traders assigning the highest implied probability (38%) to an S&P 500 close above 8,000 by year-end 2026. With the index near 7,674 in late August, analysts have lifted 2026 EPS forecasts sharply higher—some to 25% or more year-over-year—reflecting resilient GDP, solid labor conditions, and margins near record levels. Elevated inflation (core PCE around 3%) and the Fed’s hold at the 3.5–3.75% funds rate under Chair Warsh, amid Middle East supply shocks, temper expectations but have not derailed sentiment. Upcoming CPI, PCE, and FOMC decisions remain key swing factors for the closely watched range between 7,500 and 8,000.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volume
$40,126End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETResolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Strong corporate earnings growth, fueled by AI infrastructure spending and broad sector beats, stands as the main driver behind Polymarket traders assigning the highest implied probability (38%) to an S&P 500 close above 8,000 by year-end 2026. With the index near 7,674 in late August, analysts have lifted 2026 EPS forecasts sharply higher—some to 25% or more year-over-year—reflecting resilient GDP, solid labor conditions, and margins near record levels. Elevated inflation (core PCE around 3%) and the Fed’s hold at the 3.5–3.75% funds rate under Chair Warsh, amid Middle East supply shocks, temper expectations but have not derailed sentiment. Upcoming CPI, PCE, and FOMC decisions remain key swing factors for the closely watched range between 7,500 and 8,000.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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