Hikaru Nakamura's unmatched volume of Titled Tuesday participation and consistent top finishes in the Chess.com weekly 11-round Swiss blitz event underpin his leading 20.5% implied probability, reflecting trader consensus on his edge in a deep field of titled players. Magnus Carlsen's 10.5% follows from occasional strong showings, including an August 4 victory, tempered by recent inconsistencies such as an early exit on August 18. Recent winners like Tuan Minh Le, Jose Martinez, and Alireza Firouzja, alongside regulars Arjun Erigaisi, Denis Lazavik, and Aleksei Sarana, highlight how hot streaks, blitz ratings above 3200, and tiebreak resilience differentiate contenders in this wide-open format where any elite grandmaster can claim the title on a given Tuesday.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHikaru Nakamura 30%
Magnus Carlsen 11%
Ding Liren 9.0%
Wei Yi 9%
Hikaru Nakamura
22%
Magnus Carlsen
11%
Ding Liren
9%
Wei Yi
9%
Vladimir Fedoseev
9%
Brandon Jacobson
9%
Christopher Yoo
9%
Awonder Liang
9%
Andrew Tang
9%
Nikolas Theodorou
8%
Arjun Erigaisi
7%
Aleksei Sarana
5%
Denis Lazavik
5%
Jose Martinez
5%
Sina Movahed
5%
Tuomas Turunen
5%
Gukesh Dommaraju
5%
Vladislav Artemiev
5%
Le Tuan Minh
4%
Jan-Krzysztof Duda
4%
Jeffery Xiong
4%
Parham Maghsoodloo
4%
Haowen Xue
4%
Levon Aronian
4%
Bardiya Daneshvar
4%
Yoseph Theolifus Taher
4%
Alireza Firouzja
4%
Hans Niemann
4%
Ian Nepomniachtchi
4%
Dmitry Andreikin
4%
Nodirbek Abdusattorov
4%
Pranav Venkatesh
4%
Seyyed Mohammad Amin Tabatabaei
4%
Nihal Sarin
4%
Alexander Grischuk
4%
Aleksandar Indjic
4%
Cristobal Henriquez Villagra
4%
Dau Khuong Duy
4%
Faustino Oro
4%
Frederik Svane
4%
Haik Martirosyan
4%
Matthias Bluebaum
4%
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave
4%
Andrey Esipenko
4%
Jules Moussard
4%
Javokhir Sindarov
4%
Aleksandr Shimanov
4%
Benjamin Bok
4%
Bogdan-Daniel Deac
4%
David Anton
4%
Dincer Tasdogen
4%
Fabiano Caruana
4%
Oleksandr Bortnyk
4%
Pranesh Munirethinam
4%
Sergey Sklokin
4%
Volen Dyulgerov
4%
Zhamsaran Tsydypov
4%
Aravindh Chithambaram
4%
Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu
4%
Renato Terry Lujan
4%
Rudik Makarian
4%
Rasmus Svane
4%
Sam Sevian
4%
Shamsiddin Vokhidov
4%
Vincent Keymer
4%
Wesley So
4%
Hikaru Nakamura 30%
Magnus Carlsen 11%
Ding Liren 9.0%
Wei Yi 9%
Hikaru Nakamura
22%
Magnus Carlsen
11%
Ding Liren
9%
Wei Yi
9%
Vladimir Fedoseev
9%
Brandon Jacobson
9%
Christopher Yoo
9%
Awonder Liang
9%
Andrew Tang
9%
Nikolas Theodorou
8%
Arjun Erigaisi
7%
Aleksei Sarana
5%
Denis Lazavik
5%
Jose Martinez
5%
Sina Movahed
5%
Tuomas Turunen
5%
Gukesh Dommaraju
5%
Vladislav Artemiev
5%
Le Tuan Minh
4%
Jan-Krzysztof Duda
4%
Jeffery Xiong
4%
Parham Maghsoodloo
4%
Haowen Xue
4%
Levon Aronian
4%
Bardiya Daneshvar
4%
Yoseph Theolifus Taher
4%
Alireza Firouzja
4%
Hans Niemann
4%
Ian Nepomniachtchi
4%
Dmitry Andreikin
4%
Nodirbek Abdusattorov
4%
Pranav Venkatesh
4%
Seyyed Mohammad Amin Tabatabaei
4%
Nihal Sarin
4%
Alexander Grischuk
4%
Aleksandar Indjic
4%
Cristobal Henriquez Villagra
4%
Dau Khuong Duy
4%
Faustino Oro
4%
Frederik Svane
4%
Haik Martirosyan
4%
Matthias Bluebaum
4%
Maxime Vachier-Lagrave
4%
Andrey Esipenko
4%
Jules Moussard
4%
Javokhir Sindarov
4%
Aleksandr Shimanov
4%
Benjamin Bok
4%
Bogdan-Daniel Deac
4%
David Anton
4%
Dincer Tasdogen
4%
Fabiano Caruana
4%
Oleksandr Bortnyk
4%
Pranesh Munirethinam
4%
Sergey Sklokin
4%
Volen Dyulgerov
4%
Zhamsaran Tsydypov
4%
Aravindh Chithambaram
4%
Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu
4%
Renato Terry Lujan
4%
Rudik Makarian
4%
Rasmus Svane
4%
Sam Sevian
4%
Shamsiddin Vokhidov
4%
Vincent Keymer
4%
Wesley So
4%
If the listed player does not play their corresponding market will resolve to "No".
If this tournament is postponed after September 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other."
If multiple players are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the tournament organizer, Chess.com (https://www.chess.com/events/info/2026-titled-tuesday-blitz); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 18, 2026, 12:30 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.chess.com/events/info/2026-titled-tuesday-blitzResolver
0x69c47De9D...If the listed player does not play their corresponding market will resolve to "No".
If this tournament is postponed after September 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other."
If multiple players are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the tournament organizer, Chess.com (https://www.chess.com/events/info/2026-titled-tuesday-blitz); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution Source
https://www.chess.com/events/info/2026-titled-tuesday-blitzResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hikaru Nakamura's unmatched volume of Titled Tuesday participation and consistent top finishes in the Chess.com weekly 11-round Swiss blitz event underpin his leading 20.5% implied probability, reflecting trader consensus on his edge in a deep field of titled players. Magnus Carlsen's 10.5% follows from occasional strong showings, including an August 4 victory, tempered by recent inconsistencies such as an early exit on August 18. Recent winners like Tuan Minh Le, Jose Martinez, and Alireza Firouzja, alongside regulars Arjun Erigaisi, Denis Lazavik, and Aleksei Sarana, highlight how hot streaks, blitz ratings above 3200, and tiebreak resilience differentiate contenders in this wide-open format where any elite grandmaster can claim the title on a given Tuesday.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions