President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s 2025 appointment of a ten-member legal commission to draft a civilian constitution has sustained AKP discussion of replacing the 1980 charter, yet no completed draft has reached parliamentary debate or referendum scheduling by August 2026. Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş voiced optimism for action in 2026–2027, but the ruling party and its allies lack the seats required for passage without additional support. The remaining months until year-end leave insufficient time for the legislative steps, coalition negotiations, or public referendum process needed to trigger market resolution. Traders therefore price the low likelihood of an official announcement before December 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated7% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 30, 2026
7% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s 2025 appointment of a ten-member legal commission to draft a civilian constitution has sustained AKP discussion of replacing the 1980 charter, yet no completed draft has reached parliamentary debate or referendum scheduling by August 2026. Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş voiced optimism for action in 2026–2027, but the ruling party and its allies lack the seats required for passage without additional support. The remaining months until year-end leave insufficient time for the legislative steps, coalition negotiations, or public referendum process needed to trigger market resolution. Traders therefore price the low likelihood of an official announcement before December 31.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Volume
$7,283End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s 2025 appointment of a ten-member legal commission to draft a civilian constitution has sustained AKP discussion of replacing the 1980 charter, yet no completed draft has reached parliamentary debate or referendum scheduling by August 2026. Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş voiced optimism for action in 2026–2027, but the ruling party and its allies lack the seats required for passage without additional support. The remaining months until year-end leave insufficient time for the legislative steps, coalition negotiations, or public referendum process needed to trigger market resolution. Traders therefore price the low likelihood of an official announcement before December 31.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$7,283End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s 2025 appointment of a ten-member legal commission to draft a civilian constitution has sustained AKP discussion of replacing the 1980 charter, yet no completed draft has reached parliamentary debate or referendum scheduling by August 2026. Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş voiced optimism for action in 2026–2027, but the ruling party and its allies lack the seats required for passage without additional support. The remaining months until year-end leave insufficient time for the legislative steps, coalition negotiations, or public referendum process needed to trigger market resolution. Traders therefore price the low likelihood of an official announcement before December 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions