**Turkey’s ruling AKP has advanced preparatory work on replacing the 1982 constitution, yet parliamentary arithmetic and political fragmentation make adoption or decisive progress in 2026 highly improbable.** President Erdoğan and allies including Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş have repeatedly endorsed a “civilian” charter, with a 10-expert commission formed under Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz and statements targeting 2026-2027 completion. Recent steps include internal AKP evaluations of rights provisions and Erdoğan’s public call for inclusive input, including from the pro-Kurdish DEM Party. However, the AKP-MHP bloc controls roughly 321-328 of 600 seats—short of the 360-vote threshold for constitutional amendments or early elections. Opposition fragmentation after legal actions against the CHP has not translated into cross-party consensus, and DEM support on the August 2026 PKK-related “national solidarity” law has not extended to constitutional backing. Analysts note that any full rewrite would require either 400 votes for immediate effect or a referendum after 360, both distant prospects without major realignments. With elections not due until 2028 and focus instead on electoral-law tweaks or limited reforms, traders assign only a 6.5% chance of meaningful movement on a new constitution before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated7% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 30, 2026
7% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Turkey’s ruling AKP has advanced preparatory work on replacing the 1982 constitution, yet parliamentary arithmetic and political fragmentation make adoption or decisive progress in 2026 highly improbable.** President Erdoğan and allies including Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş have repeatedly endorsed a “civilian” charter, with a 10-expert commission formed under Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz and statements targeting 2026-2027 completion. Recent steps include internal AKP evaluations of rights provisions and Erdoğan’s public call for inclusive input, including from the pro-Kurdish DEM Party.
However, the AKP-MHP bloc controls roughly 321-328 of 600 seats—short of the 360-vote threshold for constitutional amendments or early elections. Opposition fragmentation after legal actions against the CHP has not translated into cross-party consensus, and DEM support on the August 2026 PKK-related “national solidarity” law has not extended to constitutional backing. Analysts note that any full rewrite would require either 400 votes for immediate effect or a referendum after 360, both distant prospects without major realignments. With elections not due until 2028 and focus instead on electoral-law tweaks or limited reforms, traders assign only a 6.5% chance of meaningful movement on a new constitution before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Volume
$7,283End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Turkey’s ruling AKP has advanced preparatory work on replacing the 1982 constitution, yet parliamentary arithmetic and political fragmentation make adoption or decisive progress in 2026 highly improbable.** President Erdoğan and allies including Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş have repeatedly endorsed a “civilian” charter, with a 10-expert commission formed under Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz and statements targeting 2026-2027 completion. Recent steps include internal AKP evaluations of rights provisions and Erdoğan’s public call for inclusive input, including from the pro-Kurdish DEM Party.
However, the AKP-MHP bloc controls roughly 321-328 of 600 seats—short of the 360-vote threshold for constitutional amendments or early elections. Opposition fragmentation after legal actions against the CHP has not translated into cross-party consensus, and DEM support on the August 2026 PKK-related “national solidarity” law has not extended to constitutional backing. Analysts note that any full rewrite would require either 400 votes for immediate effect or a referendum after 360, both distant prospects without major realignments. With elections not due until 2028 and focus instead on electoral-law tweaks or limited reforms, traders assign only a 6.5% chance of meaningful movement on a new constitution before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$7,283End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Turkey’s ruling AKP has advanced preparatory work on replacing the 1982 constitution, yet parliamentary arithmetic and political fragmentation make adoption or decisive progress in 2026 highly improbable.** President Erdoğan and allies including Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş have repeatedly endorsed a “civilian” charter, with a 10-expert commission formed under Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz and statements targeting 2026-2027 completion. Recent steps include internal AKP evaluations of rights provisions and Erdoğan’s public call for inclusive input, including from the pro-Kurdish DEM Party. However, the AKP-MHP bloc controls roughly 321-328 of 600 seats—short of the 360-vote threshold for constitutional amendments or early elections. Opposition fragmentation after legal actions against the CHP has not translated into cross-party consensus, and DEM support on the August 2026 PKK-related “national solidarity” law has not extended to constitutional backing. Analysts note that any full rewrite would require either 400 votes for immediate effect or a referendum after 360, both distant prospects without major realignments. With elections not due until 2028 and focus instead on electoral-law tweaks or limited reforms, traders assign only a 6.5% chance of meaningful movement on a new constitution before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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