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Elections·New Zealand Election

Which parties will be part of the next government of New Zealand?

icon for Which parties will be part of the next government of New Zealand?
Elections·New Zealand Election

Which parties will be part of the next government of New Zealand?

NEW
Nov 6, 2026
Polymarket

$1,160 Vol.

Polymarket
icon for Green Party

Green Party

$48 Vol.

54%

icon for ACT New Zealand

ACT New Zealand

$8 Vol.

46%

icon for National Party

National Party

$572 Vol.

42%

icon for Labour Party

Labour Party

$476 Vol.

38%

icon for Te Pāti Māori

Te Pāti Māori

$50 Vol.

42%

icon for New Zealand First Party

New Zealand First Party

$7 Vol.

39%

A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first New Zealand government formed after the 2026 New Zealand general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances. A party will only be considered part of the government if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of New Zealand.The 2026 New Zealand general election, set for 7 November under proportional representation rules requiring coalitions or support agreements to reach a parliamentary majority, features a tight contest between the incumbent National-led bloc and Labour-aligned parties. Recent July and August polling shows National near 30 percent, Labour around 30 percent, NZ First near 10 percent, ACT near 8 percent, and the Greens near 10.5 percent, keeping the current National-ACT-NZ First combination ahead of a potential Labour-Greens-Te Pāti Māori grouping on aggregate support. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon survived an August confidence vote amid ongoing leadership scrutiny and economic pressures including cost-of-living concerns. Key upcoming milestones include candidate nominations in September and the final weeks of regulated campaigning, with smaller parties such as Opportunity hovering near the 5 percent threshold that could influence coalition math. Trader assessments track bloc stability, preference flows, and any late shifts in voter enrolment or issue salience ahead of election night.

A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first New Zealand government formed after the 2026 New Zealand general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.

A party will only be considered part of the government if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify.

If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of New Zealand.
Volume
$1,160
End Date
Nov 7, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:40 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first New Zealand government formed after the 2026 New Zealand general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances. A party will only be considered part of the government if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of New Zealand.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first New Zealand government formed after the 2026 New Zealand general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances. A party will only be considered part of the government if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of New Zealand.The 2026 New Zealand general election, set for 7 November under proportional representation rules requiring coalitions or support agreements to reach a parliamentary majority, features a tight contest between the incumbent National-led bloc and Labour-aligned parties. Recent July and August polling shows National near 30 percent, Labour around 30 percent, NZ First near 10 percent, ACT near 8 percent, and the Greens near 10.5 percent, keeping the current National-ACT-NZ First combination ahead of a potential Labour-Greens-Te Pāti Māori grouping on aggregate support. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon survived an August confidence vote amid ongoing leadership scrutiny and economic pressures including cost-of-living concerns. Key upcoming milestones include candidate nominations in September and the final weeks of regulated campaigning, with smaller parties such as Opportunity hovering near the 5 percent threshold that could influence coalition math. Trader assessments track bloc stability, preference flows, and any late shifts in voter enrolment or issue salience ahead of election night.

A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first New Zealand government formed after the 2026 New Zealand general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.

A party will only be considered part of the government if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify.

If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of New Zealand.
Volume
$1,160
End Date
Nov 7, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 29, 2026, 7:40 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first New Zealand government formed after the 2026 New Zealand general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances. A party will only be considered part of the government if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of New Zealand.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Which parties will be part of the next government of New Zealand?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Green Party" at 54%, followed by "ACT New Zealand" at 46%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 54¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 54% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Which parties will be part of the next government of New Zealand?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 29, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Which parties will be part of the next government of New Zealand?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which parties will be part of the next government of New Zealand?" is "Green Party" at 54%, meaning the market assigns a 54% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "ACT New Zealand" at 46%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which parties will be part of the next government of New Zealand?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.