Anthropic's earlier confidential S-1 filing on June 1, 2026, combined with active investor meetings and a $65 billion Series H round at a $965 billion valuation, has driven the 95.3% market-implied odds that it will reach public markets ahead of OpenAI. The Claude developer is targeting an October or fall 2026 Nasdaq debut, while OpenAI's later June filing and CFO statements signaling a 2027 listing or later reflect slower preparation amid rapid growth and profitability challenges. Strong trader consensus reflects these procedural and timing gaps, though realistic shifts could arise from extended SEC reviews on revenue accounting or AI-safety disclosures, sudden market volatility, or OpenAI accelerating its timeline if enterprise revenue continues scaling.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic
95% chance
$315,346 Vol.
$315,346 Vol.
Dec 30, 2027
Anthropic
95% chance
$315,346 Vol.
$315,346 Vol.
Dec 30, 2027
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic's earlier confidential S-1 filing on June 1, 2026, combined with active investor meetings and a $65 billion Series H round at a $965 billion valuation, has driven the 95.3% market-implied odds that it will reach public markets ahead of OpenAI. The Claude developer is targeting an October or fall 2026 Nasdaq debut, while OpenAI's later June filing and CFO statements signaling a 2027 listing or later reflect slower preparation amid rapid growth and profitability challenges. Strong trader consensus reflects these procedural and timing gaps, though realistic shifts could arise from extended SEC reviews on revenue accounting or AI-safety disclosures, sudden market volatility, or OpenAI accelerating its timeline if enterprise revenue continues scaling.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
Volume
$315,346End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic's earlier confidential S-1 filing on June 1, 2026, combined with active investor meetings and a $65 billion Series H round at a $965 billion valuation, has driven the 95.3% market-implied odds that it will reach public markets ahead of OpenAI. The Claude developer is targeting an October or fall 2026 Nasdaq debut, while OpenAI's later June filing and CFO statements signaling a 2027 listing or later reflect slower preparation amid rapid growth and profitability challenges. Strong trader consensus reflects these procedural and timing gaps, though realistic shifts could arise from extended SEC reviews on revenue accounting or AI-safety disclosures, sudden market volatility, or OpenAI accelerating its timeline if enterprise revenue continues scaling.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$315,346End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic's earlier confidential S-1 filing on June 1, 2026, combined with active investor meetings and a $65 billion Series H round at a $965 billion valuation, has driven the 95.3% market-implied odds that it will reach public markets ahead of OpenAI. The Claude developer is targeting an October or fall 2026 Nasdaq debut, while OpenAI's later June filing and CFO statements signaling a 2027 listing or later reflect slower preparation amid rapid growth and profitability challenges. Strong trader consensus reflects these procedural and timing gaps, though realistic shifts could arise from extended SEC reviews on revenue accounting or AI-safety disclosures, sudden market volatility, or OpenAI accelerating its timeline if enterprise revenue continues scaling.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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