Apple is actively testing CXMT DRAM across iPhone and MacBook lines amid an AI-driven memory shortage, with early talks focused on limited supply for China-market devices. However, CXMT’s full 2026 production capacity is already allocated, the firm has raised prices and rebuffed Apple’s discount requests, and bipartisan U.S. senators have warned against any purchases given the supplier’s Pentagon blacklist status. Political sensitivities, lobbying needs for regulatory clearance, and Apple’s historical reliance on Korean and U.S. memory makers continue to weigh on the likelihood of a commercial deal materializing in 2026, supporting the current market-implied odds favoring no purchase.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated42% chance
$17,140 Vol.
$17,140 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
42% chance
$17,140 Vol.
$17,140 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Apple is actively testing CXMT DRAM across iPhone and MacBook lines amid an AI-driven memory shortage, with early talks focused on limited supply for China-market devices. However, CXMT’s full 2026 production capacity is already allocated, the firm has raised prices and rebuffed Apple’s discount requests, and bipartisan U.S. senators have warned against any purchases given the supplier’s Pentagon blacklist status. Political sensitivities, lobbying needs for regulatory clearance, and Apple’s historical reliance on Korean and U.S. memory makers continue to weigh on the likelihood of a commercial deal materializing in 2026, supporting the current market-implied odds favoring no purchase.
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ET
Volume
$17,140End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Apple is actively testing CXMT DRAM across iPhone and MacBook lines amid an AI-driven memory shortage, with early talks focused on limited supply for China-market devices. However, CXMT’s full 2026 production capacity is already allocated, the firm has raised prices and rebuffed Apple’s discount requests, and bipartisan U.S. senators have warned against any purchases given the supplier’s Pentagon blacklist status. Political sensitivities, lobbying needs for regulatory clearance, and Apple’s historical reliance on Korean and U.S. memory makers continue to weigh on the likelihood of a commercial deal materializing in 2026, supporting the current market-implied odds favoring no purchase.
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$17,140End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple is actively testing CXMT DRAM across iPhone and MacBook lines amid an AI-driven memory shortage, with early talks focused on limited supply for China-market devices. However, CXMT’s full 2026 production capacity is already allocated, the firm has raised prices and rebuffed Apple’s discount requests, and bipartisan U.S. senators have warned against any purchases given the supplier’s Pentagon blacklist status. Political sensitivities, lobbying needs for regulatory clearance, and Apple’s historical reliance on Korean and U.S. memory makers continue to weigh on the likelihood of a commercial deal materializing in 2026, supporting the current market-implied odds favoring no purchase.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions