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Politics·Jews

Will California enact a law recognizing Jews as an ethnic group by December 31?

icon for Will California enact a law recognizing Jews as an ethnic group by December 31?
Politics·Jews

Will California enact a law recognizing Jews as an ethnic group by December 31?

85% chance
Polymarket
NEW
85% chance
Polymarket
NEW
California Senate Bill 1387 is a bill that would require state forms or programs that collect ethnic identity data to include an option for a Jewish ethnic identity. This market will resolve to "Yes" if California enacts legislation into law that would have the effect of treating Jewish identity or ancestry as an ethnic identity by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying legislation includes but is not limited to: any state bill that would require an option for Jewish ethnic identity or ancestry alongside other ethnic identities in state forms that collect ethnic data; any state bill that treats Jewish identity or ancestry as an ethnicity in civil rights legislation; or any state bill that treats Jewish identity or ancestry as an ethnicity in other government contexts. This market is not limited to SB 1387; any legislation meeting the above description will qualify. Qualifying legislation must be enacted by the deadline, but its provisions may take effect outside of this market's timeframe. Legislation that does not become law under the applicable state process, including vetoed bills that do not take effect, does not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official California state legislative records (including leginfo.legislature.ca.gov), governor's office announcements, secretary of state records, and other official information from the relevant state government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.California Senate Bill 1387, which would require state agencies collecting demographic data to add an optional Jewish ethnicity category alongside existing ancestry and racial options, has advanced rapidly through the legislature with unanimous Senate passage and strong bipartisan committee approvals in the Assembly by mid-August 2026. Sponsors highlight improved hate crime tracking, public health data for genetic conditions, and accurate self-identification for those viewing Jewish identity through ethnic or cultural lenses rather than solely religious ones. The measure now faces final floor votes and potential gubernatorial action ahead of the December 31 deadline, with implementation targeted for 2027 if enacted, underpinning traders' assessment of an 84.5% implied probability for approval.

California Senate Bill 1387 is a bill that would require state forms or programs that collect ethnic identity data to include an option for a Jewish ethnic identity.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if California enacts legislation into law that would have the effect of treating Jewish identity or ancestry as an ethnic identity by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Qualifying legislation includes but is not limited to: any state bill that would require an option for Jewish ethnic identity or ancestry alongside other ethnic identities in state forms that collect ethnic data; any state bill that treats Jewish identity or ancestry as an ethnicity in civil rights legislation; or any state bill that treats Jewish identity or ancestry as an ethnicity in other government contexts. This market is not limited to SB 1387; any legislation meeting the above description will qualify.

Qualifying legislation must be enacted by the deadline, but its provisions may take effect outside of this market's timeframe.

Legislation that does not become law under the applicable state process, including vetoed bills that do not take effect, does not qualify.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official California state legislative records (including leginfo.legislature.ca.gov), governor's office announcements, secretary of state records, and other official information from the relevant state government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,791
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 2:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
California Senate Bill 1387 is a bill that would require state forms or programs that collect ethnic identity data to include an option for a Jewish ethnic identity. This market will resolve to "Yes" if California enacts legislation into law that would have the effect of treating Jewish identity or ancestry as an ethnic identity by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying legislation includes but is not limited to: any state bill that would require an option for Jewish ethnic identity or ancestry alongside other ethnic identities in state forms that collect ethnic data; any state bill that treats Jewish identity or ancestry as an ethnicity in civil rights legislation; or any state bill that treats Jewish identity or ancestry as an ethnicity in other government contexts. This market is not limited to SB 1387; any legislation meeting the above description will qualify. Qualifying legislation must be enacted by the deadline, but its provisions may take effect outside of this market's timeframe. Legislation that does not become law under the applicable state process, including vetoed bills that do not take effect, does not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official California state legislative records (including leginfo.legislature.ca.gov), governor's office announcements, secretary of state records, and other official information from the relevant state government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
California Senate Bill 1387 is a bill that would require state forms or programs that collect ethnic identity data to include an option for a Jewish ethnic identity. This market will resolve to "Yes" if California enacts legislation into law that would have the effect of treating Jewish identity or ancestry as an ethnic identity by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying legislation includes but is not limited to: any state bill that would require an option for Jewish ethnic identity or ancestry alongside other ethnic identities in state forms that collect ethnic data; any state bill that treats Jewish identity or ancestry as an ethnicity in civil rights legislation; or any state bill that treats Jewish identity or ancestry as an ethnicity in other government contexts. This market is not limited to SB 1387; any legislation meeting the above description will qualify. Qualifying legislation must be enacted by the deadline, but its provisions may take effect outside of this market's timeframe. Legislation that does not become law under the applicable state process, including vetoed bills that do not take effect, does not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official California state legislative records (including leginfo.legislature.ca.gov), governor's office announcements, secretary of state records, and other official information from the relevant state government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.California Senate Bill 1387, which would require state agencies collecting demographic data to add an optional Jewish ethnicity category alongside existing ancestry and racial options, has advanced rapidly through the legislature with unanimous Senate passage and strong bipartisan committee approvals in the Assembly by mid-August 2026. Sponsors highlight improved hate crime tracking, public health data for genetic conditions, and accurate self-identification for those viewing Jewish identity through ethnic or cultural lenses rather than solely religious ones. The measure now faces final floor votes and potential gubernatorial action ahead of the December 31 deadline, with implementation targeted for 2027 if enacted, underpinning traders' assessment of an 84.5% implied probability for approval.

California Senate Bill 1387 is a bill that would require state forms or programs that collect ethnic identity data to include an option for a Jewish ethnic identity.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if California enacts legislation into law that would have the effect of treating Jewish identity or ancestry as an ethnic identity by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Qualifying legislation includes but is not limited to: any state bill that would require an option for Jewish ethnic identity or ancestry alongside other ethnic identities in state forms that collect ethnic data; any state bill that treats Jewish identity or ancestry as an ethnicity in civil rights legislation; or any state bill that treats Jewish identity or ancestry as an ethnicity in other government contexts. This market is not limited to SB 1387; any legislation meeting the above description will qualify.

Qualifying legislation must be enacted by the deadline, but its provisions may take effect outside of this market's timeframe.

Legislation that does not become law under the applicable state process, including vetoed bills that do not take effect, does not qualify.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official California state legislative records (including leginfo.legislature.ca.gov), governor's office announcements, secretary of state records, and other official information from the relevant state government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,791
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 2:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
California Senate Bill 1387 is a bill that would require state forms or programs that collect ethnic identity data to include an option for a Jewish ethnic identity. This market will resolve to "Yes" if California enacts legislation into law that would have the effect of treating Jewish identity or ancestry as an ethnic identity by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying legislation includes but is not limited to: any state bill that would require an option for Jewish ethnic identity or ancestry alongside other ethnic identities in state forms that collect ethnic data; any state bill that treats Jewish identity or ancestry as an ethnicity in civil rights legislation; or any state bill that treats Jewish identity or ancestry as an ethnicity in other government contexts. This market is not limited to SB 1387; any legislation meeting the above description will qualify. Qualifying legislation must be enacted by the deadline, but its provisions may take effect outside of this market's timeframe. Legislation that does not become law under the applicable state process, including vetoed bills that do not take effect, does not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official California state legislative records (including leginfo.legislature.ca.gov), governor's office announcements, secretary of state records, and other official information from the relevant state government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will California enact a law recognizing Jews as an ethnic group by December 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 85% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 85¢, the market collectively assigns a 85% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will California enact a law recognizing Jews as an ethnic group by December 31?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 13, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will California enact a law recognizing Jews as an ethnic group by December 31?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will California enact a law recognizing Jews as an ethnic group by December 31?" is 85% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 85% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will California enact a law recognizing Jews as an ethnic group by December 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.