Peltola’s narrow lead over incumbent Dan S. Sullivan in Alaska’s August 18 top-four primary has anchored trader expectations for a 6–9% margin. With roughly 80–90% of precincts reported, Peltola holds 48.1% to Sullivan’s 42.7%, a gap consistent with pre-election polls showing the pair separated by low single digits in a crowded field that included a second Republican named Sullivan. Alaska’s open primary and ranked-choice system, combined with substantial outside spending aimed at fringe candidates, kept the contest tight until election night. Remaining ballots and any late-count shifts could still adjust the final spread, while the strong Peltola fundraising edge and Sullivan’s incumbency have limited the probability of wider or narrower outcomes reflected in current market pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPeltola 3–6% 19%
Peltola <3% <1%
Peltola 15%+ <1%
Peltola 12–15% <1%
$20,571 Vol.
$20,571 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
Peltola 15%+
<1%
Peltola 12–15%
<1%
Peltola 9–12%
41%
Peltola 6–9%
54%
Peltola 3–6%
19%
Peltola <3%
<1%
Sullivan <3%
<1%
Sullivan 3–6%
<1%
Sullivan 6–9%
<1%
Sullivan 9–12%
<1%
Sullivan 12%+
<1%
Peltola 3–6% 19%
Peltola <3% <1%
Peltola 15%+ <1%
Peltola 12–15% <1%
$20,571 Vol.
$20,571 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
Peltola 15%+
$512 Vol.
<1%
Peltola 12–15%
$525 Vol.
<1%
Peltola 9–12%
$1,043 Vol.
41%
Peltola 6–9%
$1,960 Vol.
54%
Peltola 3–6%
$11,917 Vol.
19%
Peltola <3%
$1,306 Vol.
<1%
Sullivan <3%
$684 Vol.
<1%
Sullivan 3–6%
$1,137 Vol.
<1%
Sullivan 6–9%
$657 Vol.
<1%
Sullivan 9–12%
$387 Vol.
<1%
Sullivan 12%+
$442 Vol.
<1%
The non-partisan primary election for US Senator from Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Senator from Alaska.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Peltola’s narrow lead over incumbent Dan S. Sullivan in Alaska’s August 18 top-four primary has anchored trader expectations for a 6–9% margin. With roughly 80–90% of precincts reported, Peltola holds 48.1% to Sullivan’s 42.7%, a gap consistent with pre-election polls showing the pair separated by low single digits in a crowded field that included a second Republican named Sullivan. Alaska’s open primary and ranked-choice system, combined with substantial outside spending aimed at fringe candidates, kept the contest tight until election night. Remaining ballots and any late-count shifts could still adjust the final spread, while the strong Peltola fundraising edge and Sullivan’s incumbency have limited the probability of wider or narrower outcomes reflected in current market pricing.
The non-partisan primary election for US Senator from Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Senator from Alaska.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$20,571End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The non-partisan primary election for US Senator from Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Senator from Alaska.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Peltola’s narrow lead over incumbent Dan S. Sullivan in Alaska’s August 18 top-four primary has anchored trader expectations for a 6–9% margin. With roughly 80–90% of precincts reported, Peltola holds 48.1% to Sullivan’s 42.7%, a gap consistent with pre-election polls showing the pair separated by low single digits in a crowded field that included a second Republican named Sullivan. Alaska’s open primary and ranked-choice system, combined with substantial outside spending aimed at fringe candidates, kept the contest tight until election night. Remaining ballots and any late-count shifts could still adjust the final spread, while the strong Peltola fundraising edge and Sullivan’s incumbency have limited the probability of wider or narrower outcomes reflected in current market pricing.
The non-partisan primary election for US Senator from Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Senator from Alaska.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$20,571End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Peltola’s narrow lead over incumbent Dan S. Sullivan in Alaska’s August 18 top-four primary has anchored trader expectations for a 6–9% margin. With roughly 80–90% of precincts reported, Peltola holds 48.1% to Sullivan’s 42.7%, a gap consistent with pre-election polls showing the pair separated by low single digits in a crowded field that included a second Republican named Sullivan. Alaska’s open primary and ranked-choice system, combined with substantial outside spending aimed at fringe candidates, kept the contest tight until election night. Remaining ballots and any late-count shifts could still adjust the final spread, while the strong Peltola fundraising edge and Sullivan’s incumbency have limited the probability of wider or narrower outcomes reflected in current market pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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