Peggy Flanagan secured the Democratic nomination for Minnesota’s open U.S. Senate seat with roughly 59 percent of the vote to Angie Craig’s 39.5 percent on August 11, producing a margin consistent with the market’s overwhelming probability on a 15–20 point victory. Flanagan’s commanding position stemmed from early DFL endorsement, unified progressive backing including from retiring Senator Tina Smith and national figures such as Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, and strong grassroots turnout across northern counties and the Twin Cities. Craig’s earlier vote for the Laken Riley Act became a central liability after federal immigration enforcement actions in Minnesota, shifting the race toward questions of resistance to federal policy and eroding her support among primary voters despite substantial fundraising and advertising advantages. Minor candidates drew negligible support. Late-breaking legal or certification disputes remain the only narrow paths that could still alter the recorded margin before final resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFlanagan 15–20% 97.8%
Flanagan 20%+ 3.1%
Flanagan 5–10% 2.8%
Flanagan <5% 1.6%
$48,857 Vol.
$48,857 Vol.
Aug 11, 2026
Flanagan 20%+
3%
Flanagan 15–20%
98%
Flanagan 10–15%
<1%
Flanagan 5–10%
3%
Flanagan <5%
2%
Flanagan 15–20% 97.8%
Flanagan 20%+ 3.1%
Flanagan 5–10% 2.8%
Flanagan <5% 1.6%
$48,857 Vol.
$48,857 Vol.
Aug 11, 2026
Flanagan 20%+
$1,567 Vol.
3%
Flanagan 15–20%
$17,448 Vol.
98%
Flanagan 10–15%
$10,047 Vol.
<1%
Flanagan 5–10%
$4,725 Vol.
3%
Flanagan <5%
$9,264 Vol.
2%
Primary elections in Minnesota are scheduled to be held on August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Minnesota, such as official statewide results published by the Minnesota Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mn.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Peggy Flanagan secured the Democratic nomination for Minnesota’s open U.S. Senate seat with roughly 59 percent of the vote to Angie Craig’s 39.5 percent on August 11, producing a margin consistent with the market’s overwhelming probability on a 15–20 point victory. Flanagan’s commanding position stemmed from early DFL endorsement, unified progressive backing including from retiring Senator Tina Smith and national figures such as Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, and strong grassroots turnout across northern counties and the Twin Cities. Craig’s earlier vote for the Laken Riley Act became a central liability after federal immigration enforcement actions in Minnesota, shifting the race toward questions of resistance to federal policy and eroding her support among primary voters despite substantial fundraising and advertising advantages. Minor candidates drew negligible support. Late-breaking legal or certification disputes remain the only narrow paths that could still alter the recorded margin before final resolution.
Primary elections in Minnesota are scheduled to be held on August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Minnesota, such as official statewide results published by the Minnesota Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mn.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Minnesota, such as official statewide results published by the Minnesota Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mn.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Market Opened: Jul 15, 2026, 5:51 PM ET
Volume
$48,857End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Jul 15, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Primary elections in Minnesota are scheduled to be held on August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Minnesota, such as official statewide results published by the Minnesota Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mn.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Peggy Flanagan secured the Democratic nomination for Minnesota’s open U.S. Senate seat with roughly 59 percent of the vote to Angie Craig’s 39.5 percent on August 11, producing a margin consistent with the market’s overwhelming probability on a 15–20 point victory. Flanagan’s commanding position stemmed from early DFL endorsement, unified progressive backing including from retiring Senator Tina Smith and national figures such as Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, and strong grassroots turnout across northern counties and the Twin Cities. Craig’s earlier vote for the Laken Riley Act became a central liability after federal immigration enforcement actions in Minnesota, shifting the race toward questions of resistance to federal policy and eroding her support among primary voters despite substantial fundraising and advertising advantages. Minor candidates drew negligible support. Late-breaking legal or certification disputes remain the only narrow paths that could still alter the recorded margin before final resolution.
Primary elections in Minnesota are scheduled to be held on August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Minnesota, such as official statewide results published by the Minnesota Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mn.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Senate Primary.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Minnesota, such as official statewide results published by the Minnesota Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mn.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$48,857End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Jul 15, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Peggy Flanagan secured the Democratic nomination for Minnesota’s open U.S. Senate seat with roughly 59 percent of the vote to Angie Craig’s 39.5 percent on August 11, producing a margin consistent with the market’s overwhelming probability on a 15–20 point victory. Flanagan’s commanding position stemmed from early DFL endorsement, unified progressive backing including from retiring Senator Tina Smith and national figures such as Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, and strong grassroots turnout across northern counties and the Twin Cities. Craig’s earlier vote for the Laken Riley Act became a central liability after federal immigration enforcement actions in Minnesota, shifting the race toward questions of resistance to federal policy and eroding her support among primary voters despite substantial fundraising and advertising advantages. Minor candidates drew negligible support. Late-breaking legal or certification disputes remain the only narrow paths that could still alter the recorded margin before final resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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