Trump’s second term, now in its twentieth month, faces institutional and political barriers that make early removal highly improbable. Impeachment requires a House majority followed by a two-thirds Senate conviction, a threshold unmet in prior cases and unlikely without broad bipartisan consensus absent from current dynamics. Democratic resolutions have been introduced and tabled, with renewed calls during 2026 Iran-related tensions, yet these produced no sustained momentum or Cabinet action under the 25th Amendment. No resignation signals, documented health developments, or other triggering events have emerged. Traders assign the 93.5% probability to “No” on the basis of this short window to January 2027, historical precedent for presidential continuity, and the absence of conditions that would overcome Senate safeguards before the midterm cycle concludes.