Elon Musk’s typical daily posting rhythm—driven by quick replies, memes, and commentary on X—positions the 40-64 tweet range as the market favorite at 55% implied probability for the three-day window. Routine engagement on topics like SpaceX milestones, immigration debates, and cultural observations has produced steady but not elevated volume so far, with no major launches, announcements, or viral controversies emerging to push totals higher. The 39% chance for under 40 tweets reflects the possibility of a quieter stretch over the final day, while slim odds above 65 underscore how rarely sustained spikes occur without a clear external catalyst. Traders appear to be pricing in his established pattern of moderate-to-high daily activity rather than any short-term surge.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated40-64 54%
<40 40%
65-89 6%
90-114 <1%
$339,979 Vol.
$339,979 Vol.
Aug 24, 2026
<40
40%
40-64
54%
65-89
6%
90-114
1%
115-139
<1%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
40-64 54%
<40 40%
65-89 6%
90-114 <1%
$339,979 Vol.
$339,979 Vol.
Aug 24, 2026
<40
$52,424 Vol.
40%
40-64
$31,903 Vol.
54%
65-89
$38,220 Vol.
6%
90-114
$67,487 Vol.
1%
115-139
$62,415 Vol.
<1%
140-164
$29,495 Vol.
<1%
165-189
$31,020 Vol.
<1%
190-214
$14,520 Vol.
<1%
215-239
$8,044 Vol.
<1%
240+
$4,452 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 22 12:00 PM ET to August 24, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s typical daily posting rhythm—driven by quick replies, memes, and commentary on X—positions the 40-64 tweet range as the market favorite at 55% implied probability for the three-day window. Routine engagement on topics like SpaceX milestones, immigration debates, and cultural observations has produced steady but not elevated volume so far, with no major launches, announcements, or viral controversies emerging to push totals higher. The 39% chance for under 40 tweets reflects the possibility of a quieter stretch over the final day, while slim odds above 65 underscore how rarely sustained spikes occur without a clear external catalyst. Traders appear to be pricing in his established pattern of moderate-to-high daily activity rather than any short-term surge.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 22 12:00 PM ET to August 24, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volume
$339,979End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 22 12:00 PM ET to August 24, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s typical daily posting rhythm—driven by quick replies, memes, and commentary on X—positions the 40-64 tweet range as the market favorite at 55% implied probability for the three-day window. Routine engagement on topics like SpaceX milestones, immigration debates, and cultural observations has produced steady but not elevated volume so far, with no major launches, announcements, or viral controversies emerging to push totals higher. The 39% chance for under 40 tweets reflects the possibility of a quieter stretch over the final day, while slim odds above 65 underscore how rarely sustained spikes occur without a clear external catalyst. Traders appear to be pricing in his established pattern of moderate-to-high daily activity rather than any short-term surge.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 22 12:00 PM ET to August 24, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$339,979End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s typical daily posting rhythm—driven by quick replies, memes, and commentary on X—positions the 40-64 tweet range as the market favorite at 55% implied probability for the three-day window. Routine engagement on topics like SpaceX milestones, immigration debates, and cultural observations has produced steady but not elevated volume so far, with no major launches, announcements, or viral controversies emerging to push totals higher. The 39% chance for under 40 tweets reflects the possibility of a quieter stretch over the final day, while slim odds above 65 underscore how rarely sustained spikes occur without a clear external catalyst. Traders appear to be pricing in his established pattern of moderate-to-high daily activity rather than any short-term surge.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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