Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record $360 million domestic opening and subsequent $855 million haul through its fourth weekend have cemented strong early momentum, yet its weekly drops and the approach of back-to-school season now anchor trader sentiment around the sub-$900 million threshold by August 31. Recent fourth-weekend results near $39 million reflect solid but decelerating performance typical of summer tentpoles, with competition from new releases and shorter legs limiting upside in the final seven days. Market-implied odds heavily favor the <900 million bracket at 68 percent, with the 900-920 million range a distant second at 30.5 percent, underscoring how current trajectory and seasonal headwinds outweigh any late surge potential.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by August 31? (Higher Strikes)
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by August 31? (Higher Strikes)
<900m 68%
900 - 920m 31%
920 - 940m 1.2%
1080m+ <1%
$410,638 Vol.
$410,638 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<900m
68%
900 - 920m
31%
920 - 940m
1%
940 - 960m
<1%
960 - 980m
<1%
980 - 1000m
<1%
1000 - 1020m
<1%
1020 - 1040m
<1%
1040 - 1060m
<1%
1060 - 1080m
<1%
1080m+
<1%
<900m 68%
900 - 920m 31%
920 - 940m 1.2%
1080m+ <1%
$410,638 Vol.
$410,638 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<900m
$92,276 Vol.
68%
900 - 920m
$73,613 Vol.
31%
920 - 940m
$39,111 Vol.
1%
940 - 960m
$26,602 Vol.
<1%
960 - 980m
$19,128 Vol.
<1%
980 - 1000m
$8,224 Vol.
<1%
1000 - 1020m
$2,789 Vol.
<1%
1020 - 1040m
$764 Vol.
<1%
1040 - 1060m
$837 Vol.
<1%
1060 - 1080m
$873 Vol.
<1%
1080m+
$146,422 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by August 31, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and August 31, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record $360 million domestic opening and subsequent $855 million haul through its fourth weekend have cemented strong early momentum, yet its weekly drops and the approach of back-to-school season now anchor trader sentiment around the sub-$900 million threshold by August 31. Recent fourth-weekend results near $39 million reflect solid but decelerating performance typical of summer tentpoles, with competition from new releases and shorter legs limiting upside in the final seven days. Market-implied odds heavily favor the <900 million bracket at 68 percent, with the 900-920 million range a distant second at 30.5 percent, underscoring how current trajectory and seasonal headwinds outweigh any late surge potential.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by August 31, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and August 31, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Aug 5, 2026, 12:15 PM ET
Volume
$410,638End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 12:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by August 31, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and August 31, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record $360 million domestic opening and subsequent $855 million haul through its fourth weekend have cemented strong early momentum, yet its weekly drops and the approach of back-to-school season now anchor trader sentiment around the sub-$900 million threshold by August 31. Recent fourth-weekend results near $39 million reflect solid but decelerating performance typical of summer tentpoles, with competition from new releases and shorter legs limiting upside in the final seven days. Market-implied odds heavily favor the <900 million bracket at 68 percent, with the 900-920 million range a distant second at 30.5 percent, underscoring how current trajectory and seasonal headwinds outweigh any late surge potential.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by August 31, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and August 31, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$410,638End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 12:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record $360 million domestic opening and subsequent $855 million haul through its fourth weekend have cemented strong early momentum, yet its weekly drops and the approach of back-to-school season now anchor trader sentiment around the sub-$900 million threshold by August 31. Recent fourth-weekend results near $39 million reflect solid but decelerating performance typical of summer tentpoles, with competition from new releases and shorter legs limiting upside in the final seven days. Market-implied odds heavily favor the <900 million bracket at 68 percent, with the 900-920 million range a distant second at 30.5 percent, underscoring how current trajectory and seasonal headwinds outweigh any late surge potential.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions