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icon for What will be the top US Netflix movie this week?

What will be the top US Netflix movie this week?

icon for What will be the top US Netflix movie this week?

What will be the top US Netflix movie this week?

Aug 25

Aug 25

Don’t Say Good Luck 98.8%

The Last House <1%

To Catch a Cheater <1%

Extinction <1%

Polymarket

$24,275 Vol.

Don’t Say Good Luck 98.8%

The Last House <1%

To Catch a Cheater <1%

Extinction <1%

Polymarket

$24,275 Vol.

icon for Don’t Say Good Luck

Don’t Say Good Luck

$21,015 Vol.

99%

icon for The Last House

The Last House

$829 Vol.

1%

icon for To Catch a Cheater

To Catch a Cheater

$1,495 Vol.

<1%

icon for Extinction

Extinction

$331 Vol.

<1%

icon for Arthur the King

Arthur the King

$429 Vol.

<1%

icon for Freefall: A Reckoning for Boeing

Freefall: A Reckoning for Boeing

$175 Vol.

<1%

Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, August 25, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #1 US Netflix movie. If multiple movies tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the movie whose listed title comes first alphabetically. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for US Top 10 Movies. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by August 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".Don't Say Good Luck has locked in overwhelming trader consensus as the likely top U.S. Netflix film this week thanks to its strong debut momentum following the August 14 release. The Adam Sandler-produced musical teen drama, starring his daughter Sunny Sandler and featuring positive early reviews from critics, has benefited from family-friendly appeal, emotional word-of-mouth, and solid placement in recent top-10 charts amid limited new competition. Other titles trail far behind in implied probability. An upset would require a surprise surge from an established holdover like To Catch a Cheater or Facing El Chapo, or an unexpected late-week spike in views for a lower-profile release that overtakes it before the period ends.

Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, August 25, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday).

This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #1 US Netflix movie. If multiple movies tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the movie whose listed title comes first alphabetically.

The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for US Top 10 Movies.

If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by August 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$24,275
End Date
Aug 25, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 9:20 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://top10.netflix.com/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, August 25, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #1 US Netflix movie. If multiple movies tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the movie whose listed title comes first alphabetically. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for US Top 10 Movies. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by August 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, August 25, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #1 US Netflix movie. If multiple movies tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the movie whose listed title comes first alphabetically. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for US Top 10 Movies. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by August 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".Don't Say Good Luck has locked in overwhelming trader consensus as the likely top U.S. Netflix film this week thanks to its strong debut momentum following the August 14 release. The Adam Sandler-produced musical teen drama, starring his daughter Sunny Sandler and featuring positive early reviews from critics, has benefited from family-friendly appeal, emotional word-of-mouth, and solid placement in recent top-10 charts amid limited new competition. Other titles trail far behind in implied probability. An upset would require a surprise surge from an established holdover like To Catch a Cheater or Facing El Chapo, or an unexpected late-week spike in views for a lower-profile release that overtakes it before the period ends.

Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, August 25, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday).

This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #1 US Netflix movie. If multiple movies tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the movie whose listed title comes first alphabetically.

The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for US Top 10 Movies.

If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by August 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$24,275
End Date
Aug 25, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 9:20 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://top10.netflix.com/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, August 25, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #1 US Netflix movie. If multiple movies tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the movie whose listed title comes first alphabetically. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for US Top 10 Movies. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by August 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

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Will "Don't Say Good Luck" be the top global Netflix movie this week?

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Frequently Asked Questions

"What will be the top US Netflix movie this week?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Don’t Say Good Luck" at 99%, followed by "The Last House" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 99¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "What will be the top US Netflix movie this week?" has generated $24.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 19, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "What will be the top US Netflix movie this week?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "What will be the top US Netflix movie this week?" is "Don’t Say Good Luck" at 99%, meaning the market assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "The Last House" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "What will be the top US Netflix movie this week?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.