Trump remains firmly in office as the 47th president following his January 2025 inauguration, with Republican majorities in Congress limiting near-term removal pathways. Recent months have featured ongoing scrutiny of his health at age 80, including reports of fatigue and medical concerns, alongside Democratic calls to invoke the 25th Amendment and low approval ratings tied to the Iran conflict and domestic issues. However, no articles of impeachment have advanced to conviction thresholds, no Cabinet-level action has materialized under the 25th Amendment, and midterm elections that could shift House control lie weeks after the August 31 cutoff. Trader pricing at 99.6% for "No" aligns with these institutional and timeline barriers, though abrupt health events or unprecedented bipartisan consensus on removal could theoretically alter the outcome before month-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<1% chance
$2,031,885 Vol.
$2,031,885 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<1% chance
$2,031,885 Vol.
$2,031,885 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump remains firmly in office as the 47th president following his January 2025 inauguration, with Republican majorities in Congress limiting near-term removal pathways. Recent months have featured ongoing scrutiny of his health at age 80, including reports of fatigue and medical concerns, alongside Democratic calls to invoke the 25th Amendment and low approval ratings tied to the Iran conflict and domestic issues. However, no articles of impeachment have advanced to conviction thresholds, no Cabinet-level action has materialized under the 25th Amendment, and midterm elections that could shift House control lie weeks after the August 31 cutoff. Trader pricing at 99.6% for "No" aligns with these institutional and timeline barriers, though abrupt health events or unprecedented bipartisan consensus on removal could theoretically alter the outcome before month-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 30, 2026, 5:24 PM ET
Volume
$2,031,885End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 5:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump remains firmly in office as the 47th president following his January 2025 inauguration, with Republican majorities in Congress limiting near-term removal pathways. Recent months have featured ongoing scrutiny of his health at age 80, including reports of fatigue and medical concerns, alongside Democratic calls to invoke the 25th Amendment and low approval ratings tied to the Iran conflict and domestic issues. However, no articles of impeachment have advanced to conviction thresholds, no Cabinet-level action has materialized under the 25th Amendment, and midterm elections that could shift House control lie weeks after the August 31 cutoff. Trader pricing at 99.6% for "No" aligns with these institutional and timeline barriers, though abrupt health events or unprecedented bipartisan consensus on removal could theoretically alter the outcome before month-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,031,885End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 5:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trump remains firmly in office as the 47th president following his January 2025 inauguration, with Republican majorities in Congress limiting near-term removal pathways. Recent months have featured ongoing scrutiny of his health at age 80, including reports of fatigue and medical concerns, alongside Democratic calls to invoke the 25th Amendment and low approval ratings tied to the Iran conflict and domestic issues. However, no articles of impeachment have advanced to conviction thresholds, no Cabinet-level action has materialized under the 25th Amendment, and midterm elections that could shift House control lie weeks after the August 31 cutoff. Trader pricing at 99.6% for "No" aligns with these institutional and timeline barriers, though abrupt health events or unprecedented bipartisan consensus on removal could theoretically alter the outcome before month-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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