President Trump’s October 2025 directive to begin nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, citing their alleged low-yield or subcritical activities, initially raised expectations for a possible U.S. return to explosive testing after the 1992 moratorium. Subsequent clarifications from Energy Secretary Chris Wright and other officials emphasized that activities would involve simulations, stockpile stewardship experiments, and system checks rather than yield-producing detonations at the Nevada National Security Site. The National Nuclear Security Administration maintains technical readiness for underground explosive tests within roughly 24–36 months but has not received dedicated funding or direction to execute one. Congressional appropriations continue to prioritize modernization and non-explosive verification programs, while no legislative or executive actions since late 2025 have altered the de facto policy against explosive tests.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedU.S. nuclear test by...?
U.S. nuclear test by...?
$794,083 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30, 2026
1%
December 31, 2026
4%
$794,083 Vol.
September 30, 2026
$57,347 Vol.
1%
December 31, 2026
$75,925 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump’s October 2025 directive to begin nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, citing their alleged low-yield or subcritical activities, initially raised expectations for a possible U.S. return to explosive testing after the 1992 moratorium. Subsequent clarifications from Energy Secretary Chris Wright and other officials emphasized that activities would involve simulations, stockpile stewardship experiments, and system checks rather than yield-producing detonations at the Nevada National Security Site. The National Nuclear Security Administration maintains technical readiness for underground explosive tests within roughly 24–36 months but has not received dedicated funding or direction to execute one. Congressional appropriations continue to prioritize modernization and non-explosive verification programs, while no legislative or executive actions since late 2025 have altered the de facto policy against explosive tests.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$794,083End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump’s October 2025 directive to begin nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, citing their alleged low-yield or subcritical activities, initially raised expectations for a possible U.S. return to explosive testing after the 1992 moratorium. Subsequent clarifications from Energy Secretary Chris Wright and other officials emphasized that activities would involve simulations, stockpile stewardship experiments, and system checks rather than yield-producing detonations at the Nevada National Security Site. The National Nuclear Security Administration maintains technical readiness for underground explosive tests within roughly 24–36 months but has not received dedicated funding or direction to execute one. Congressional appropriations continue to prioritize modernization and non-explosive verification programs, while no legislative or executive actions since late 2025 have altered the de facto policy against explosive tests.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$794,083End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump’s October 2025 directive to begin nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, citing their alleged low-yield or subcritical activities, initially raised expectations for a possible U.S. return to explosive testing after the 1992 moratorium. Subsequent clarifications from Energy Secretary Chris Wright and other officials emphasized that activities would involve simulations, stockpile stewardship experiments, and system checks rather than yield-producing detonations at the Nevada National Security Site. The National Nuclear Security Administration maintains technical readiness for underground explosive tests within roughly 24–36 months but has not received dedicated funding or direction to execute one. Congressional appropriations continue to prioritize modernization and non-explosive verification programs, while no legislative or executive actions since late 2025 have altered the de facto policy against explosive tests.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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