Negotiations between Ukraine and Russia remain stalled with core disagreements over territorial control of Donbas and security guarantees, including NATO-related issues, driving trader consensus against a signed peace deal by August 31. U.S.-mediated trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva earlier in 2026 produced no breakthroughs on these points, and Kremlin statements in July indicated no immediate plans to resume formal discussions. Recent high-level contacts between U.S. and Ukrainian leaders have explored reviving dialogue but yielded no scheduled rounds or concessions capable of bridging gaps within the narrow remaining window. While battlefield developments or sudden backchannel shifts could theoretically accelerate timelines, the absence of active negotiations and entrenched positions make such outcomes improbable before month-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<1% chance
$268,153 Vol.
$268,153 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<1% chance
$268,153 Vol.
$268,153 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Negotiations between Ukraine and Russia remain stalled with core disagreements over territorial control of Donbas and security guarantees, including NATO-related issues, driving trader consensus against a signed peace deal by August 31. U.S.-mediated trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva earlier in 2026 produced no breakthroughs on these points, and Kremlin statements in July indicated no immediate plans to resume formal discussions. Recent high-level contacts between U.S. and Ukrainian leaders have explored reviving dialogue but yielded no scheduled rounds or concessions capable of bridging gaps within the narrow remaining window. While battlefield developments or sudden backchannel shifts could theoretically accelerate timelines, the absence of active negotiations and entrenched positions make such outcomes improbable before month-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volume
$268,153End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Negotiations between Ukraine and Russia remain stalled with core disagreements over territorial control of Donbas and security guarantees, including NATO-related issues, driving trader consensus against a signed peace deal by August 31. U.S.-mediated trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva earlier in 2026 produced no breakthroughs on these points, and Kremlin statements in July indicated no immediate plans to resume formal discussions. Recent high-level contacts between U.S. and Ukrainian leaders have explored reviving dialogue but yielded no scheduled rounds or concessions capable of bridging gaps within the narrow remaining window. While battlefield developments or sudden backchannel shifts could theoretically accelerate timelines, the absence of active negotiations and entrenched positions make such outcomes improbable before month-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$268,153End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Negotiations between Ukraine and Russia remain stalled with core disagreements over territorial control of Donbas and security guarantees, including NATO-related issues, driving trader consensus against a signed peace deal by August 31. U.S.-mediated trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva earlier in 2026 produced no breakthroughs on these points, and Kremlin statements in July indicated no immediate plans to resume formal discussions. Recent high-level contacts between U.S. and Ukrainian leaders have explored reviving dialogue but yielded no scheduled rounds or concessions capable of bridging gaps within the narrow remaining window. While battlefield developments or sudden backchannel shifts could theoretically accelerate timelines, the absence of active negotiations and entrenched positions make such outcomes improbable before month-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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