Recent Houthi missile strikes on commercial vessels in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, including the fatal August 12 attack on the Tihamah, combined with renewed blockade threats targeting Saudi-linked traffic, have heightened rerouting incentives for carriers and elevated war-risk insurance premiums. These security dynamics create tight clustering around 200–220 weekly transits as traders weigh stabilized volumes near 266–275 observed in early August against potential further declines from escalated attacks or naval responses. Competitive odds reflect uncertainty over carrier decisions to divert via the Cape of Good Hope versus limited returns through the strait amid the broader U.S.-Iran conflict, with any near-term de-escalation or additional incidents likely to shift the distribution across the closely matched buckets.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 24?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 24?
220+ 34%
200-219 25%
160-179 19%
180-199 19%
NEW
$13,002 Vol.
NEW
$13,002 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
<160
15%
160-179
19%
180-199
19%
200-219
25%
220+
34%
220+ 34%
200-219 25%
160-179 19%
180-199 19%
NEW
$13,002 Vol.
NEW
$13,002 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
<160
$0 Vol.
15%
160-179
$0 Vol.
19%
180-199
$0 Vol.
19%
200-219
$12,895 Vol.
25%
220+
$107 Vol.
34%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi missile strikes on commercial vessels in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, including the fatal August 12 attack on the Tihamah, combined with renewed blockade threats targeting Saudi-linked traffic, have heightened rerouting incentives for carriers and elevated war-risk insurance premiums. These security dynamics create tight clustering around 200–220 weekly transits as traders weigh stabilized volumes near 266–275 observed in early August against potential further declines from escalated attacks or naval responses. Competitive odds reflect uncertainty over carrier decisions to divert via the Cape of Good Hope versus limited returns through the strait amid the broader U.S.-Iran conflict, with any near-term de-escalation or additional incidents likely to shift the distribution across the closely matched buckets.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 3:08 PM ET
Volume
$13,002End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi missile strikes on commercial vessels in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, including the fatal August 12 attack on the Tihamah, combined with renewed blockade threats targeting Saudi-linked traffic, have heightened rerouting incentives for carriers and elevated war-risk insurance premiums. These security dynamics create tight clustering around 200–220 weekly transits as traders weigh stabilized volumes near 266–275 observed in early August against potential further declines from escalated attacks or naval responses. Competitive odds reflect uncertainty over carrier decisions to divert via the Cape of Good Hope versus limited returns through the strait amid the broader U.S.-Iran conflict, with any near-term de-escalation or additional incidents likely to shift the distribution across the closely matched buckets.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$13,002End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi missile strikes on commercial vessels in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, including the fatal August 12 attack on the Tihamah, combined with renewed blockade threats targeting Saudi-linked traffic, have heightened rerouting incentives for carriers and elevated war-risk insurance premiums. These security dynamics create tight clustering around 200–220 weekly transits as traders weigh stabilized volumes near 266–275 observed in early August against potential further declines from escalated attacks or naval responses. Competitive odds reflect uncertainty over carrier decisions to divert via the Cape of Good Hope versus limited returns through the strait amid the broader U.S.-Iran conflict, with any near-term de-escalation or additional incidents likely to shift the distribution across the closely matched buckets.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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