Ongoing US-Iran hostilities and mutual blockades continue to suppress commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, driving the 25-49 outcome to 67.5% implied probability. Recent Kpler data showed just 13 transits on August 22 and four on August 23, with overall volumes for the week ending August 21 at roughly 192 combined inbound and outbound commodity vessels—about 90% below pre-conflict baselines of roughly 130 daily. War-risk insurance premiums at 40 times normal levels, frequent AIS-dark transits, projectile threats, and carrier rerouting have kept activity minimal despite occasional dark or northern-route movements. With stalemated talks and no near-term resolution catalysts, trader consensus prices in persistently low but not near-zero weekly flows for the period beginning August 24.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 24?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 24?
25-49 70%
<25 13%
50-74 9%
100+ 4.9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
<25
13%
25-49
70%
50-74
9%
75-99
2%
100+
5%
25-49 70%
<25 13%
50-74 9%
100+ 4.9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
<25
$757 Vol.
13%
25-49
$931 Vol.
70%
50-74
$164 Vol.
9%
75-99
$239 Vol.
2%
100+
$141 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US-Iran hostilities and mutual blockades continue to suppress commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, driving the 25-49 outcome to 67.5% implied probability. Recent Kpler data showed just 13 transits on August 22 and four on August 23, with overall volumes for the week ending August 21 at roughly 192 combined inbound and outbound commodity vessels—about 90% below pre-conflict baselines of roughly 130 daily. War-risk insurance premiums at 40 times normal levels, frequent AIS-dark transits, projectile threats, and carrier rerouting have kept activity minimal despite occasional dark or northern-route movements. With stalemated talks and no near-term resolution catalysts, trader consensus prices in persistently low but not near-zero weekly flows for the period beginning August 24.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 3:05 PM ET
Volume
$2,232End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US-Iran hostilities and mutual blockades continue to suppress commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, driving the 25-49 outcome to 67.5% implied probability. Recent Kpler data showed just 13 transits on August 22 and four on August 23, with overall volumes for the week ending August 21 at roughly 192 combined inbound and outbound commodity vessels—about 90% below pre-conflict baselines of roughly 130 daily. War-risk insurance premiums at 40 times normal levels, frequent AIS-dark transits, projectile threats, and carrier rerouting have kept activity minimal despite occasional dark or northern-route movements. With stalemated talks and no near-term resolution catalysts, trader consensus prices in persistently low but not near-zero weekly flows for the period beginning August 24.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$2,232End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing US-Iran hostilities and mutual blockades continue to suppress commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz, driving the 25-49 outcome to 67.5% implied probability. Recent Kpler data showed just 13 transits on August 22 and four on August 23, with overall volumes for the week ending August 21 at roughly 192 combined inbound and outbound commodity vessels—about 90% below pre-conflict baselines of roughly 130 daily. War-risk insurance premiums at 40 times normal levels, frequent AIS-dark transits, projectile threats, and carrier rerouting have kept activity minimal despite occasional dark or northern-route movements. With stalemated talks and no near-term resolution catalysts, trader consensus prices in persistently low but not near-zero weekly flows for the period beginning August 24.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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