France's August 18, 2026 announcement to expel two Iranian diplomats in response to the July arrest and barring of French embassy staff in Tehran has heightened expectations for near-term expulsions, shifting trader focus toward September or October resolution dates. This follows prior 2025-2026 actions by Australia, the United States, Argentina, and Lebanon, often tied to security concerns, espionage allegations, or reciprocal diplomatic measures amid broader Iran-Western frictions. Ongoing bilateral disputes, potential Iranian retaliation, and any additional incidents involving embassy personnel or sanctions-related tensions could accelerate or delay further expulsions, directly influencing the timing probabilities reflected in current market pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnother Iranian diplomat expelled by...?
Another Iranian diplomat expelled by...?
$20,079 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
4%
September 30
26%
October 31
26%
$20,079 Vol.
August 31
$19,189 Vol.
4%
September 30
$60 Vol.
26%
October 31
$830 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.France's August 18, 2026 announcement to expel two Iranian diplomats in response to the July arrest and barring of French embassy staff in Tehran has heightened expectations for near-term expulsions, shifting trader focus toward September or October resolution dates. This follows prior 2025-2026 actions by Australia, the United States, Argentina, and Lebanon, often tied to security concerns, espionage allegations, or reciprocal diplomatic measures amid broader Iran-Western frictions. Ongoing bilateral disputes, potential Iranian retaliation, and any additional incidents involving embassy personnel or sanctions-related tensions could accelerate or delay further expulsions, directly influencing the timing probabilities reflected in current market pricing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 19, 2026, 8:32 PM ET
Volume
$20,079End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 8:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.France's August 18, 2026 announcement to expel two Iranian diplomats in response to the July arrest and barring of French embassy staff in Tehran has heightened expectations for near-term expulsions, shifting trader focus toward September or October resolution dates. This follows prior 2025-2026 actions by Australia, the United States, Argentina, and Lebanon, often tied to security concerns, espionage allegations, or reciprocal diplomatic measures amid broader Iran-Western frictions. Ongoing bilateral disputes, potential Iranian retaliation, and any additional incidents involving embassy personnel or sanctions-related tensions could accelerate or delay further expulsions, directly influencing the timing probabilities reflected in current market pricing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$20,079End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 8:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...France's August 18, 2026 announcement to expel two Iranian diplomats in response to the July arrest and barring of French embassy staff in Tehran has heightened expectations for near-term expulsions, shifting trader focus toward September or October resolution dates. This follows prior 2025-2026 actions by Australia, the United States, Argentina, and Lebanon, often tied to security concerns, espionage allegations, or reciprocal diplomatic measures amid broader Iran-Western frictions. Ongoing bilateral disputes, potential Iranian retaliation, and any additional incidents involving embassy personnel or sanctions-related tensions could accelerate or delay further expulsions, directly influencing the timing probabilities reflected in current market pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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