**Geopolitical tensions and attacks on commercial vessels have sharply curtailed traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the critical chokepoint for roughly one-fifth of global oil trade, positioning the 25-49 weekly transits range as the clear market leader at 72.5% implied probability.** Ongoing US-Iran conflict, including renewed IRGC strikes on tankers in mid-August and the reimposition of a US naval blockade on Iranian ports, has driven daily crossings to single digits or low teens—well below the pre-crisis baseline of roughly 70–130 vessels per day. Data from Kpler and other trackers show near-standstill conditions around August 14–17, with only a handful of grain, bulk, and limited tanker movements, many routed dark or US-facilitated without standard AIS signals. Diplomatic efforts, such as Iran-Oman talks over a temporary corridor, have yet to produce a sustained rebound amid the stalemate. These verified disruptions, combined with elevated insurance costs and shipowner risk aversion, anchor trader consensus around the depressed 25-49 band for the August 17 week, while probabilities for higher volumes remain minimal.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 17?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 17?
25-49 73%
<25 22%
50-74 6.3%
75-99 1.4%
$47,903 Vol.
$47,903 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
<25
22%
25-49
73%
50-74
6%
75-99
1%
100+
1%
25-49 73%
<25 22%
50-74 6.3%
75-99 1.4%
$47,903 Vol.
$47,903 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
<25
$16,892 Vol.
22%
25-49
$11,984 Vol.
73%
50-74
$9,502 Vol.
6%
75-99
$5,939 Vol.
1%
100+
$3,586 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Geopolitical tensions and attacks on commercial vessels have sharply curtailed traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the critical chokepoint for roughly one-fifth of global oil trade, positioning the 25-49 weekly transits range as the clear market leader at 72.5% implied probability.**
Ongoing US-Iran conflict, including renewed IRGC strikes on tankers in mid-August and the reimposition of a US naval blockade on Iranian ports, has driven daily crossings to single digits or low teens—well below the pre-crisis baseline of roughly 70–130 vessels per day. Data from Kpler and other trackers show near-standstill conditions around August 14–17, with only a handful of grain, bulk, and limited tanker movements, many routed dark or US-facilitated without standard AIS signals. Diplomatic efforts, such as Iran-Oman talks over a temporary corridor, have yet to produce a sustained rebound amid the stalemate.
These verified disruptions, combined with elevated insurance costs and shipowner risk aversion, anchor trader consensus around the depressed 25-49 band for the August 17 week, while probabilities for higher volumes remain minimal.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 4:50 PM ET
Volume
$47,903End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Geopolitical tensions and attacks on commercial vessels have sharply curtailed traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the critical chokepoint for roughly one-fifth of global oil trade, positioning the 25-49 weekly transits range as the clear market leader at 72.5% implied probability.**
Ongoing US-Iran conflict, including renewed IRGC strikes on tankers in mid-August and the reimposition of a US naval blockade on Iranian ports, has driven daily crossings to single digits or low teens—well below the pre-crisis baseline of roughly 70–130 vessels per day. Data from Kpler and other trackers show near-standstill conditions around August 14–17, with only a handful of grain, bulk, and limited tanker movements, many routed dark or US-facilitated without standard AIS signals. Diplomatic efforts, such as Iran-Oman talks over a temporary corridor, have yet to produce a sustained rebound amid the stalemate.
These verified disruptions, combined with elevated insurance costs and shipowner risk aversion, anchor trader consensus around the depressed 25-49 band for the August 17 week, while probabilities for higher volumes remain minimal.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$47,903End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Geopolitical tensions and attacks on commercial vessels have sharply curtailed traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the critical chokepoint for roughly one-fifth of global oil trade, positioning the 25-49 weekly transits range as the clear market leader at 72.5% implied probability.** Ongoing US-Iran conflict, including renewed IRGC strikes on tankers in mid-August and the reimposition of a US naval blockade on Iranian ports, has driven daily crossings to single digits or low teens—well below the pre-crisis baseline of roughly 70–130 vessels per day. Data from Kpler and other trackers show near-standstill conditions around August 14–17, with only a handful of grain, bulk, and limited tanker movements, many routed dark or US-facilitated without standard AIS signals. Diplomatic efforts, such as Iran-Oman talks over a temporary corridor, have yet to produce a sustained rebound amid the stalemate. These verified disruptions, combined with elevated insurance costs and shipowner risk aversion, anchor trader consensus around the depressed 25-49 band for the August 17 week, while probabilities for higher volumes remain minimal.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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