Canada and the United States maintain deep economic interdependence through energy exports, supply chains, and the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement framework, despite ongoing tariff disputes and CUSMA review talks. Prime Minister Mark Carney has publicly ruled out declaring U.S. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra persona non grata, prioritizing continued diplomatic engagement over public petitions that have gathered hundreds of thousands of signatures. Expulsion remains a rare step under the Vienna Convention that would risk broader trade retaliation and alliance strains within NATO and North American institutions. Trader consensus at 95.5% on "No" reflects these structural barriers and the absence of any official Canadian action. A sharp further deterioration in bilateral talks or direct interference allegations could still alter the trajectory before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
5% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Canada expels the United States Ambassador to Canada between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by Canada requiring the United States Ambassador to leave Canada, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to Canada will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Canada and the United States maintain deep economic interdependence through energy exports, supply chains, and the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement framework, despite ongoing tariff disputes and CUSMA review talks. Prime Minister Mark Carney has publicly ruled out declaring U.S. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra persona non grata, prioritizing continued diplomatic engagement over public petitions that have gathered hundreds of thousands of signatures. Expulsion remains a rare step under the Vienna Convention that would risk broader trade retaliation and alliance strains within NATO and North American institutions. Trader consensus at 95.5% on "No" reflects these structural barriers and the absence of any official Canadian action. A sharp further deterioration in bilateral talks or direct interference allegations could still alter the trajectory before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Canada expels the United States Ambassador to Canada between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by Canada requiring the United States Ambassador to leave Canada, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to Canada will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by Canada requiring the United States Ambassador to leave Canada, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to Canada will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 5:03 AM ET
Volume
$96End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:03 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Canada expels the United States Ambassador to Canada between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by Canada requiring the United States Ambassador to leave Canada, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to Canada will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Canada and the United States maintain deep economic interdependence through energy exports, supply chains, and the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement framework, despite ongoing tariff disputes and CUSMA review talks. Prime Minister Mark Carney has publicly ruled out declaring U.S. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra persona non grata, prioritizing continued diplomatic engagement over public petitions that have gathered hundreds of thousands of signatures. Expulsion remains a rare step under the Vienna Convention that would risk broader trade retaliation and alliance strains within NATO and North American institutions. Trader consensus at 95.5% on "No" reflects these structural barriers and the absence of any official Canadian action. A sharp further deterioration in bilateral talks or direct interference allegations could still alter the trajectory before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Canada expels the United States Ambassador to Canada between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by Canada requiring the United States Ambassador to leave Canada, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to Canada will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by Canada requiring the United States Ambassador to leave Canada, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to Canada will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$96End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:03 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Canada and the United States maintain deep economic interdependence through energy exports, supply chains, and the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement framework, despite ongoing tariff disputes and CUSMA review talks. Prime Minister Mark Carney has publicly ruled out declaring U.S. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra persona non grata, prioritizing continued diplomatic engagement over public petitions that have gathered hundreds of thousands of signatures. Expulsion remains a rare step under the Vienna Convention that would risk broader trade retaliation and alliance strains within NATO and North American institutions. Trader consensus at 95.5% on "No" reflects these structural barriers and the absence of any official Canadian action. A sharp further deterioration in bilateral talks or direct interference allegations could still alter the trajectory before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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