**Recent Houthi attacks and elevated war-risk insurance premiums (now exceeding 1% of hull value for southern Red Sea voyages, with Saudi-linked calls up to 3%) are the dominant drivers suppressing Bab el-Mandeb transits.** A fatal missile strike on the Egyptian-owned cargo ship Tihamah in mid-August, which killed six, has reinforced operator caution and prompted further rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope for some vessels, while others employ "dark" AIS tactics or selective port avoidance. Lloyd’s List data showed roughly 223 AIS-enabled transits from August 10–16 (about 32 per day), with MarineTraffic and Kpler reporting daily commodity-ship counts fluctuating between 23 and 46 amid volatility. Tanker-specific flows remain especially thin (often 5–8 per day), reflecting the ongoing naval blockade on Saudi-linked traffic and broader supply-chain uncertainty tied to U.S.-Iran tensions. With the leading 30–34 and 25–29 buckets nearly tied, traders are pricing in modest stabilization rather than sharp recovery or collapse by month-end. Key swing factors include any new incidents, shifts in war-risk underwriting, or incremental normalization of non-Saudi volumes before resolution. This skin-in-the-game consensus captures the narrow but contested range of plausible end-August averages under current geopolitical and insurance conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAvg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of August?
Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of August?
30-34 39%
25-29 33%
<25 22.6%
35-39 7%
$26,213 Vol.
$26,213 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<25
23%
25-29
33%
30-34
39%
35-39
7%
40+
2%
30-34 39%
25-29 33%
<25 22.6%
35-39 7%
$26,213 Vol.
$26,213 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<25
$4,313 Vol.
23%
25-29
$6,099 Vol.
33%
30-34
$6,329 Vol.
39%
35-39
$3,773 Vol.
7%
40+
$5,699 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Recent Houthi attacks and elevated war-risk insurance premiums (now exceeding 1% of hull value for southern Red Sea voyages, with Saudi-linked calls up to 3%) are the dominant drivers suppressing Bab el-Mandeb transits.** A fatal missile strike on the Egyptian-owned cargo ship Tihamah in mid-August, which killed six, has reinforced operator caution and prompted further rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope for some vessels, while others employ "dark" AIS tactics or selective port avoidance.
Lloyd’s List data showed roughly 223 AIS-enabled transits from August 10–16 (about 32 per day), with MarineTraffic and Kpler reporting daily commodity-ship counts fluctuating between 23 and 46 amid volatility. Tanker-specific flows remain especially thin (often 5–8 per day), reflecting the ongoing naval blockade on Saudi-linked traffic and broader supply-chain uncertainty tied to U.S.-Iran tensions.
With the leading 30–34 and 25–29 buckets nearly tied, traders are pricing in modest stabilization rather than sharp recovery or collapse by month-end. Key swing factors include any new incidents, shifts in war-risk underwriting, or incremental normalization of non-Saudi volumes before resolution. This skin-in-the-game consensus captures the narrow but contested range of plausible end-August averages under current geopolitical and insurance conditions.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ET
Volume
$26,213End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ETResolution Source
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Recent Houthi attacks and elevated war-risk insurance premiums (now exceeding 1% of hull value for southern Red Sea voyages, with Saudi-linked calls up to 3%) are the dominant drivers suppressing Bab el-Mandeb transits.** A fatal missile strike on the Egyptian-owned cargo ship Tihamah in mid-August, which killed six, has reinforced operator caution and prompted further rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope for some vessels, while others employ "dark" AIS tactics or selective port avoidance.
Lloyd’s List data showed roughly 223 AIS-enabled transits from August 10–16 (about 32 per day), with MarineTraffic and Kpler reporting daily commodity-ship counts fluctuating between 23 and 46 amid volatility. Tanker-specific flows remain especially thin (often 5–8 per day), reflecting the ongoing naval blockade on Saudi-linked traffic and broader supply-chain uncertainty tied to U.S.-Iran tensions.
With the leading 30–34 and 25–29 buckets nearly tied, traders are pricing in modest stabilization rather than sharp recovery or collapse by month-end. Key swing factors include any new incidents, shifts in war-risk underwriting, or incremental normalization of non-Saudi volumes before resolution. This skin-in-the-game consensus captures the narrow but contested range of plausible end-August averages under current geopolitical and insurance conditions.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$26,213End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ETResolution Source
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent Houthi attacks and elevated war-risk insurance premiums (now exceeding 1% of hull value for southern Red Sea voyages, with Saudi-linked calls up to 3%) are the dominant drivers suppressing Bab el-Mandeb transits.** A fatal missile strike on the Egyptian-owned cargo ship Tihamah in mid-August, which killed six, has reinforced operator caution and prompted further rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope for some vessels, while others employ "dark" AIS tactics or selective port avoidance. Lloyd’s List data showed roughly 223 AIS-enabled transits from August 10–16 (about 32 per day), with MarineTraffic and Kpler reporting daily commodity-ship counts fluctuating between 23 and 46 amid volatility. Tanker-specific flows remain especially thin (often 5–8 per day), reflecting the ongoing naval blockade on Saudi-linked traffic and broader supply-chain uncertainty tied to U.S.-Iran tensions. With the leading 30–34 and 25–29 buckets nearly tied, traders are pricing in modest stabilization rather than sharp recovery or collapse by month-end. Key swing factors include any new incidents, shifts in war-risk underwriting, or incremental normalization of non-Saudi volumes before resolution. This skin-in-the-game consensus captures the narrow but contested range of plausible end-August averages under current geopolitical and insurance conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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