Putin maintains firm control over Russia’s security services, elite networks, and information space as of August 2026, with tightened personal protections in place since March amid earlier coup rumors that analysts viewed as exaggerated or destabilizing leaks rather than imminent threats. Economic pressures from the Ukraine conflict, including fuel shortages and modest dips in approval ratings to the mid-60s, have not produced visible elite defections, organized opposition, or military fractures capable of triggering an attempt. Upcoming September State Duma elections and continued reliance on FSB hardliners for repression further support regime continuity. Trader consensus on related markets reflects these structural barriers and the absence of verifiable precursors, assigning high probability to no coup attempt through year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated7% chance
$126,199 Vol.
$126,199 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
7% chance
$126,199 Vol.
$126,199 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Putin maintains firm control over Russia’s security services, elite networks, and information space as of August 2026, with tightened personal protections in place since March amid earlier coup rumors that analysts viewed as exaggerated or destabilizing leaks rather than imminent threats. Economic pressures from the Ukraine conflict, including fuel shortages and modest dips in approval ratings to the mid-60s, have not produced visible elite defections, organized opposition, or military fractures capable of triggering an attempt. Upcoming September State Duma elections and continued reliance on FSB hardliners for repression further support regime continuity. Trader consensus on related markets reflects these structural barriers and the absence of verifiable precursors, assigning high probability to no coup attempt through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
Volume
$126,199End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Putin maintains firm control over Russia’s security services, elite networks, and information space as of August 2026, with tightened personal protections in place since March amid earlier coup rumors that analysts viewed as exaggerated or destabilizing leaks rather than imminent threats. Economic pressures from the Ukraine conflict, including fuel shortages and modest dips in approval ratings to the mid-60s, have not produced visible elite defections, organized opposition, or military fractures capable of triggering an attempt. Upcoming September State Duma elections and continued reliance on FSB hardliners for repression further support regime continuity. Trader consensus on related markets reflects these structural barriers and the absence of verifiable precursors, assigning high probability to no coup attempt through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$126,199End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Putin maintains firm control over Russia’s security services, elite networks, and information space as of August 2026, with tightened personal protections in place since March amid earlier coup rumors that analysts viewed as exaggerated or destabilizing leaks rather than imminent threats. Economic pressures from the Ukraine conflict, including fuel shortages and modest dips in approval ratings to the mid-60s, have not produced visible elite defections, organized opposition, or military fractures capable of triggering an attempt. Upcoming September State Duma elections and continued reliance on FSB hardliners for repression further support regime continuity. Trader consensus on related markets reflects these structural barriers and the absence of verifiable precursors, assigning high probability to no coup attempt through year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions