Xi Jinping’s sustained consolidation of authority over the Chinese Communist Party and People’s Liberation Army underpins the 96% trader consensus against a coup attempt before 2027. Ongoing military purges through early 2026, including senior figures such as Zhang Youxia, have removed potential rivals and reinforced personalistic control without triggering organized resistance or elite fractures. Official channels show no public challenges to leadership succession norms, while economic and security priorities remain aligned under centralized direction. Realistic shifts could still arise from an unforeseen leadership health event, acute economic downturn fracturing elite cohesion, or abrupt external crisis exposing institutional vulnerabilities within the narrowed inner circle.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4% chance
$154,872 Vol.
$154,872 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
4% chance
$154,872 Vol.
$154,872 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s sustained consolidation of authority over the Chinese Communist Party and People’s Liberation Army underpins the 96% trader consensus against a coup attempt before 2027. Ongoing military purges through early 2026, including senior figures such as Zhang Youxia, have removed potential rivals and reinforced personalistic control without triggering organized resistance or elite fractures. Official channels show no public challenges to leadership succession norms, while economic and security priorities remain aligned under centralized direction. Realistic shifts could still arise from an unforeseen leadership health event, acute economic downturn fracturing elite cohesion, or abrupt external crisis exposing institutional vulnerabilities within the narrowed inner circle.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$154,872End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s sustained consolidation of authority over the Chinese Communist Party and People’s Liberation Army underpins the 96% trader consensus against a coup attempt before 2027. Ongoing military purges through early 2026, including senior figures such as Zhang Youxia, have removed potential rivals and reinforced personalistic control without triggering organized resistance or elite fractures. Official channels show no public challenges to leadership succession norms, while economic and security priorities remain aligned under centralized direction. Realistic shifts could still arise from an unforeseen leadership health event, acute economic downturn fracturing elite cohesion, or abrupt external crisis exposing institutional vulnerabilities within the narrowed inner circle.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$154,872End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping’s sustained consolidation of authority over the Chinese Communist Party and People’s Liberation Army underpins the 96% trader consensus against a coup attempt before 2027. Ongoing military purges through early 2026, including senior figures such as Zhang Youxia, have removed potential rivals and reinforced personalistic control without triggering organized resistance or elite fractures. Official channels show no public challenges to leadership succession norms, while economic and security priorities remain aligned under centralized direction. Realistic shifts could still arise from an unforeseen leadership health event, acute economic downturn fracturing elite cohesion, or abrupt external crisis exposing institutional vulnerabilities within the narrowed inner circle.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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