Traders assign a 99.7% probability against a Putin-Zelenskyy meeting by August 31, 2026, because Russian officials have consistently stated that direct leader-level talks require prior expert-level agreements on core issues such as territorial control, demilitarization, and security guarantees. Putin explicitly rejected Zelenskyy’s June 2026 open letter and related proposals for immediate summits, emphasizing that negotiations must first address Russia’s stated goals rather than produce short-term ceasefires. With formal trilateral talks last held in February and U.S. mediation efforts sidelined by other priorities, no preparatory diplomatic signals or scheduled bilateral engagements have emerged in the final week before the deadline. Logistical barriers compound this assessment in such a narrow window. A sudden shift in U.S.-mediated proposals or an unforeseen crisis could still prompt an unscheduled encounter, though current positions indicate limited near-term prospects.