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Politics·Russia

How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?

icon for How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?
Politics·Russia

How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?

325–339 41%

340–354 21%

310–324 19.1%

355+ 8%

Polymarket

$195,322 Vol.

325–339 41%

340–354 21%

310–324 19.1%

355+ 8%

Polymarket

$195,322 Vol.

<280

$30,031 Vol.

3%

280–294

$17,814 Vol.

3%

295–309

$12,147 Vol.

5%

310–324

$15,516 Vol.

19%

325–339

$28,539 Vol.

41%

340–354

$49,831 Vol.

21%

355+

$41,444 Vol.

8%

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.**United Russia enters the September 18–20, 2026 State Duma election holding roughly 310–324 seats under Russia’s mixed system of 225 proportional-representation seats (5% threshold) and 225 single-mandate districts.** State-affiliated polls (FOM, WCIOM) from July–August consistently place the party at 33–37% support—well ahead of CPRF, LDPR, and New People—while projecting a comfortable majority once single-mandate results are factored in. Recent party activity reinforces continuity: the June–August congresses finalized a renewed candidate slate that includes dozens of Ukraine-war veterans, Putin’s public endorsement, and approval of the “People’s Program” focused on social spending and infrastructure. Procedural factors such as favorable ballot-position draws in regional races and the disqualification of Yabloko further limit opposition gains. These elements explain why trader consensus centers on the 325–354 seat range, consistent with historical patterns in which administrative resources and single-mandate dominance have delivered constitutional majorities near or above the 2021 outcome of 324 seats. The election remains weeks away, so late developments could still affect final tallies.

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.

If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Volume
$195,322
End Date
Sep 20, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 7, 2026, 5:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.**United Russia enters the September 18–20, 2026 State Duma election holding roughly 310–324 seats under Russia’s mixed system of 225 proportional-representation seats (5% threshold) and 225 single-mandate districts.** State-affiliated polls (FOM, WCIOM) from July–August consistently place the party at 33–37% support—well ahead of CPRF, LDPR, and New People—while projecting a comfortable majority once single-mandate results are factored in. Recent party activity reinforces continuity: the June–August congresses finalized a renewed candidate slate that includes dozens of Ukraine-war veterans, Putin’s public endorsement, and approval of the “People’s Program” focused on social spending and infrastructure. Procedural factors such as favorable ballot-position draws in regional races and the disqualification of Yabloko further limit opposition gains. These elements explain why trader consensus centers on the 325–354 seat range, consistent with historical patterns in which administrative resources and single-mandate dominance have delivered constitutional majorities near or above the 2021 outcome of 324 seats. The election remains weeks away, so late developments could still affect final tallies.

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.

If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Volume
$195,322
End Date
Sep 20, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 7, 2026, 5:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "325–339" at 41%, followed by "340–354" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 41¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 41% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?" has generated $195.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 7, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?" is "325–339" at 41%, meaning the market assigns a 41% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "340–354" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.