Recent polling averages place the BSW at 4–5% in Sachsen-Anhalt ahead of the September 6 Landtag election, anchoring trader consensus on the 3–5% bracket. Surveys from INSA, pollytix, and Infratest dimap through mid-August have shown stable results near the 5% parliamentary threshold, with only marginal movement despite Sahra Wagenknecht’s campaign appearances and public statements on opposition strategy and changing majorities. Internal party frictions, including recent member exits in the state branch, and the party’s first-time candidacy have limited upward momentum, while broader voter focus on AfD and CDU dynamics has constrained smaller-party gains. These patterns, combined with historical base rates for new entrants, keep the 5–7% and sub-3% ranges as secondary probabilities in current market pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: BSW Vote Share?
Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: BSW Vote Share?
3-5% 55%
5-7% 24%
<3% 22%
7%+ 7.9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
<3%
22%
3-5%
55%
5-7%
24%
7%+
8%
3-5% 55%
5-7% 24%
<3% 22%
7%+ 7.9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
<3%
$67 Vol.
22%
3-5%
$20 Vol.
55%
5-7%
$0 Vol.
24%
7%+
$0 Vol.
8%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by BSW in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).Recent polling averages place the BSW at 4–5% in Sachsen-Anhalt ahead of the September 6 Landtag election, anchoring trader consensus on the 3–5% bracket. Surveys from INSA, pollytix, and Infratest dimap through mid-August have shown stable results near the 5% parliamentary threshold, with only marginal movement despite Sahra Wagenknecht’s campaign appearances and public statements on opposition strategy and changing majorities. Internal party frictions, including recent member exits in the state branch, and the party’s first-time candidacy have limited upward momentum, while broader voter focus on AfD and CDU dynamics has constrained smaller-party gains. These patterns, combined with historical base rates for new entrants, keep the 5–7% and sub-3% ranges as secondary probabilities in current market pricing.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by BSW in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by BSW in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 2:32 PM ET
Volume
$87End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by BSW in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).Recent polling averages place the BSW at 4–5% in Sachsen-Anhalt ahead of the September 6 Landtag election, anchoring trader consensus on the 3–5% bracket. Surveys from INSA, pollytix, and Infratest dimap through mid-August have shown stable results near the 5% parliamentary threshold, with only marginal movement despite Sahra Wagenknecht’s campaign appearances and public statements on opposition strategy and changing majorities. Internal party frictions, including recent member exits in the state branch, and the party’s first-time candidacy have limited upward momentum, while broader voter focus on AfD and CDU dynamics has constrained smaller-party gains. These patterns, combined with historical base rates for new entrants, keep the 5–7% and sub-3% ranges as secondary probabilities in current market pricing.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by BSW in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by BSW in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Volume
$87End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages place the BSW at 4–5% in Sachsen-Anhalt ahead of the September 6 Landtag election, anchoring trader consensus on the 3–5% bracket. Surveys from INSA, pollytix, and Infratest dimap through mid-August have shown stable results near the 5% parliamentary threshold, with only marginal movement despite Sahra Wagenknecht’s campaign appearances and public statements on opposition strategy and changing majorities. Internal party frictions, including recent member exits in the state branch, and the party’s first-time candidacy have limited upward momentum, while broader voter focus on AfD and CDU dynamics has constrained smaller-party gains. These patterns, combined with historical base rates for new entrants, keep the 5–7% and sub-3% ranges as secondary probabilities in current market pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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