Recent polling trends and the September 20 election timeline keep AfD seat projections tightly clustered around 29–34 in Berlin’s state parliament, where the party previously held 17 seats. AfD has gained ground on immigration, security, and economic concerns amid national momentum in eastern states, yet Berlin’s urban voter base and other parties’ refusal to form coalitions sustain uncertainty about final seat totals. The September 6 Saxony-Anhalt vote could shift turnout or media focus, while late campaign developments on turnout or minor-party thresholds may widen or narrow the leading ranges. Traders’ skin-in-the-game assessments reflect these competing local and national pressures without clear separation yet.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated32-34 30%
29-31 28%
35+ 20.9%
26-28 13%
$27,243 Vol.
$27,243 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
<20
1%
20-22
4%
23-25
2%
26-28
13%
29-31
28%
32-34
30%
35+
21%
32-34 30%
29-31 28%
35+ 20.9%
26-28 13%
$27,243 Vol.
$27,243 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
<20
$1,722 Vol.
1%
20-22
$4,996 Vol.
4%
23-25
$2,240 Vol.
2%
26-28
$2,996 Vol.
13%
29-31
$2,073 Vol.
28%
32-34
$2,989 Vol.
30%
35+
$10,228 Vol.
21%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling trends and the September 20 election timeline keep AfD seat projections tightly clustered around 29–34 in Berlin’s state parliament, where the party previously held 17 seats. AfD has gained ground on immigration, security, and economic concerns amid national momentum in eastern states, yet Berlin’s urban voter base and other parties’ refusal to form coalitions sustain uncertainty about final seat totals. The September 6 Saxony-Anhalt vote could shift turnout or media focus, while late campaign developments on turnout or minor-party thresholds may widen or narrow the leading ranges. Traders’ skin-in-the-game assessments reflect these competing local and national pressures without clear separation yet.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
Volume
$27,243End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling trends and the September 20 election timeline keep AfD seat projections tightly clustered around 29–34 in Berlin’s state parliament, where the party previously held 17 seats. AfD has gained ground on immigration, security, and economic concerns amid national momentum in eastern states, yet Berlin’s urban voter base and other parties’ refusal to form coalitions sustain uncertainty about final seat totals. The September 6 Saxony-Anhalt vote could shift turnout or media focus, while late campaign developments on turnout or minor-party thresholds may widen or narrow the leading ranges. Traders’ skin-in-the-game assessments reflect these competing local and national pressures without clear separation yet.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Volume
$27,243End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling trends and the September 20 election timeline keep AfD seat projections tightly clustered around 29–34 in Berlin’s state parliament, where the party previously held 17 seats. AfD has gained ground on immigration, security, and economic concerns amid national momentum in eastern states, yet Berlin’s urban voter base and other parties’ refusal to form coalitions sustain uncertainty about final seat totals. The September 6 Saxony-Anhalt vote could shift turnout or media focus, while late campaign developments on turnout or minor-party thresholds may widen or narrow the leading ranges. Traders’ skin-in-the-game assessments reflect these competing local and national pressures without clear separation yet.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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