Recent polling in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern ahead of the September 20, 2026 Landtag election shows Bündnis 90/Die Grünen holding a narrow but consistent edge over BSW, typically at 5% versus 4%. The Greens benefit from established state structures, prior Landtag representation, and an experienced lead candidate, while BSW contests its first election in the state and competes for left-leaning voters with Die Linke. Both parties hover near the 5% threshold, with recent INSA and Infratest dimap surveys confirming the gap has not shifted materially in the past month. Traders price the modest but stable Grüne advantage into the current implied probability, reflecting the wisdom of crowds on these organizational and competitive factors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBSW
39% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
BSW
39% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “BSW” if BSW wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than BSW in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both BSW and Grüne receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Recent polling in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern ahead of the September 20, 2026 Landtag election shows Bündnis 90/Die Grünen holding a narrow but consistent edge over BSW, typically at 5% versus 4%. The Greens benefit from established state structures, prior Landtag representation, and an experienced lead candidate, while BSW contests its first election in the state and competes for left-leaning voters with Die Linke. Both parties hover near the 5% threshold, with recent INSA and Infratest dimap surveys confirming the gap has not shifted materially in the past month. Traders price the modest but stable Grüne advantage into the current implied probability, reflecting the wisdom of crowds on these organizational and competitive factors.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “BSW” if BSW wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than BSW in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both BSW and Grüne receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to “BSW” if BSW wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than BSW in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both BSW and Grüne receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 2:32 PM ET
Volume
$1,915End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “BSW” if BSW wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than BSW in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both BSW and Grüne receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Recent polling in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern ahead of the September 20, 2026 Landtag election shows Bündnis 90/Die Grünen holding a narrow but consistent edge over BSW, typically at 5% versus 4%. The Greens benefit from established state structures, prior Landtag representation, and an experienced lead candidate, while BSW contests its first election in the state and competes for left-leaning voters with Die Linke. Both parties hover near the 5% threshold, with recent INSA and Infratest dimap surveys confirming the gap has not shifted materially in the past month. Traders price the modest but stable Grüne advantage into the current implied probability, reflecting the wisdom of crowds on these organizational and competitive factors.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “BSW” if BSW wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than BSW in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both BSW and Grüne receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to “BSW” if BSW wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than BSW in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both BSW and Grüne receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Volume
$1,915End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern ahead of the September 20, 2026 Landtag election shows Bündnis 90/Die Grünen holding a narrow but consistent edge over BSW, typically at 5% versus 4%. The Greens benefit from established state structures, prior Landtag representation, and an experienced lead candidate, while BSW contests its first election in the state and competes for left-leaning voters with Die Linke. Both parties hover near the 5% threshold, with recent INSA and Infratest dimap surveys confirming the gap has not shifted materially in the past month. Traders price the modest but stable Grüne advantage into the current implied probability, reflecting the wisdom of crowds on these organizational and competitive factors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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