Recent polls for the September 20, 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election place Die Linke at 11–12%, near the 11% threshold. The party participates in the incumbent SPD-led coalition but faces vote fragmentation from the BSW, which polls at 4–5% after splitting from Linke ranks. AfD leads statewide surveys near 36%, followed by SPD near 29%, with CDU around 10%, reflecting eastern German trends that compress smaller parties’ margins. Multiple August surveys, including INSA and Infratest dimap, show Linke support stable but without upward momentum in the final campaign weeks. Traders price the under 11% outcome at 66.5% implied probability, consistent with the narrow polling band and competition for the left electorate.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOver
34% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
Over
34% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Linke wins at least 11% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Linke wins less than 11% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Recent polls for the September 20, 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election place Die Linke at 11–12%, near the 11% threshold. The party participates in the incumbent SPD-led coalition but faces vote fragmentation from the BSW, which polls at 4–5% after splitting from Linke ranks. AfD leads statewide surveys near 36%, followed by SPD near 29%, with CDU around 10%, reflecting eastern German trends that compress smaller parties’ margins. Multiple August surveys, including INSA and Infratest dimap, show Linke support stable but without upward momentum in the final campaign weeks. Traders price the under 11% outcome at 66.5% implied probability, consistent with the narrow polling band and competition for the left electorate.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Linke wins at least 11% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Linke wins less than 11% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Linke wins at least 11% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Linke wins less than 11% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 2:33 PM ET
Volume
$731End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Linke wins at least 11% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Linke wins less than 11% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Recent polls for the September 20, 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election place Die Linke at 11–12%, near the 11% threshold. The party participates in the incumbent SPD-led coalition but faces vote fragmentation from the BSW, which polls at 4–5% after splitting from Linke ranks. AfD leads statewide surveys near 36%, followed by SPD near 29%, with CDU around 10%, reflecting eastern German trends that compress smaller parties’ margins. Multiple August surveys, including INSA and Infratest dimap, show Linke support stable but without upward momentum in the final campaign weeks. Traders price the under 11% outcome at 66.5% implied probability, consistent with the narrow polling band and competition for the left electorate.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Linke wins at least 11% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Linke wins less than 11% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Linke wins at least 11% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if Linke wins less than 11% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Volume
$731End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polls for the September 20, 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election place Die Linke at 11–12%, near the 11% threshold. The party participates in the incumbent SPD-led coalition but faces vote fragmentation from the BSW, which polls at 4–5% after splitting from Linke ranks. AfD leads statewide surveys near 36%, followed by SPD near 29%, with CDU around 10%, reflecting eastern German trends that compress smaller parties’ margins. Multiple August surveys, including INSA and Infratest dimap, show Linke support stable but without upward momentum in the final campaign weeks. Traders price the under 11% outcome at 66.5% implied probability, consistent with the narrow polling band and competition for the left electorate.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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