**Friedrich Merz’s CDU/CSU–SPD coalition has retained its Bundestag majority since the 2025 federal election despite record-low approval ratings near 15 percent and AfD polling leads above 26 percent.** Recent cabinet adjustments and budget agreements have drawn internal criticism but produced no successful no-confidence motion or coalition fracture. State elections scheduled for September 2026 pose risks for the governing parties yet fall short of immediate triggers for a federal snap vote or chancellor replacement under German constitutional rules. The Basic Law requires a constructive vote of no confidence to install a successor in the same ballot, a high barrier that has not materialized. Historical precedent shows sitting chancellors can endure weak personal support until the next scheduled election in 2029, and no verified moves by CDU leadership or SPD partners have materialized to force an early exit before 2027. Traders price the 83.5 percent probability that Merz remains in office through 2026 on these structural barriers and the low likelihood of rapid turnover in Germany’s parliamentary system.