**Ukrainian law prohibits presidential elections while martial law remains in effect, and parliament has repeatedly extended that status in 90-day increments.** As of August 2026, martial law runs through at least October 31, 2026, with further extensions expected absent a ceasefire or major shift in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Zelenskyy’s five-year term formally ended in May 2024, yet constitutional provisions keep him in office until a successor is elected after martial law lifts. Recent internal calls for a wartime vote—most notably from former Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov—have drawn sharp rejection from Zelenskyy, who described such an election as a “tsunami” that would split the country amid ongoing Russian strikes and mobilization. Analysts and officials across parties view wartime balloting as legally barred and logistically unfeasible given security risks, troop deployments, and millions of displaced citizens. Polls indicate Zelenskyy retains competitive support in a hypothetical wartime contest, and no scheduled events or diplomatic breakthroughs point to martial law ending before year-end. Traders therefore price the probability of him leaving office by December 31, 2026, at roughly 9 percent, reflecting the structural barriers and the consensus view that the war’s trajectory will keep the current framework intact through the resolution window.