Recent polls ahead of the September 20 Berlin state election show the CDU at 18-20 percent, down sharply from its 28.2 percent and 52 seats in 2023, placing it in a tight race with the surging Left party (19-22 percent) and AfD (17-19 percent). The shift followed incumbent mayor Kai Wegner’s withdrawal amid a power-outage scandal, with replacement candidate Stefan Evers stabilizing but not reversing support. These vote shares, combined with the mixed-member proportional system and uncertain minor-party thresholds, point to roughly 25-35 seats for the CDU under current conditions. Trader consensus around 30-34 seats reflects the narrow band of plausible outcomes amid volatile late-campaign dynamics and coalition arithmetic.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBerlin State Elections: CDU # of seats?
Berlin State Elections: CDU # of seats?
30-34 44%
25-29 29%
35-39 12%
45+ 9.4%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
<25
1%
25-29
29%
30-34
44%
35-39
12%
40-44
5%
45+
9%
30-34 44%
25-29 29%
35-39 12%
45+ 9.4%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
<25
$572 Vol.
1%
25-29
$2,851 Vol.
29%
30-34
$1,368 Vol.
44%
35-39
$2,442 Vol.
12%
40-44
$609 Vol.
5%
45+
$2,004 Vol.
9%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the CDU party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls ahead of the September 20 Berlin state election show the CDU at 18-20 percent, down sharply from its 28.2 percent and 52 seats in 2023, placing it in a tight race with the surging Left party (19-22 percent) and AfD (17-19 percent). The shift followed incumbent mayor Kai Wegner’s withdrawal amid a power-outage scandal, with replacement candidate Stefan Evers stabilizing but not reversing support. These vote shares, combined with the mixed-member proportional system and uncertain minor-party thresholds, point to roughly 25-35 seats for the CDU under current conditions. Trader consensus around 30-34 seats reflects the narrow band of plausible outcomes amid volatile late-campaign dynamics and coalition arithmetic.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the CDU party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the CDU party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Market Opened: Aug 10, 2026, 8:12 PM ET
Volume
$9,846End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 8:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the CDU party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls ahead of the September 20 Berlin state election show the CDU at 18-20 percent, down sharply from its 28.2 percent and 52 seats in 2023, placing it in a tight race with the surging Left party (19-22 percent) and AfD (17-19 percent). The shift followed incumbent mayor Kai Wegner’s withdrawal amid a power-outage scandal, with replacement candidate Stefan Evers stabilizing but not reversing support. These vote shares, combined with the mixed-member proportional system and uncertain minor-party thresholds, point to roughly 25-35 seats for the CDU under current conditions. Trader consensus around 30-34 seats reflects the narrow band of plausible outcomes amid volatile late-campaign dynamics and coalition arithmetic.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the CDU party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the CDU party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system.
If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Volume
$9,846End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 8:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls ahead of the September 20 Berlin state election show the CDU at 18-20 percent, down sharply from its 28.2 percent and 52 seats in 2023, placing it in a tight race with the surging Left party (19-22 percent) and AfD (17-19 percent). The shift followed incumbent mayor Kai Wegner’s withdrawal amid a power-outage scandal, with replacement candidate Stefan Evers stabilizing but not reversing support. These vote shares, combined with the mixed-member proportional system and uncertain minor-party thresholds, point to roughly 25-35 seats for the CDU under current conditions. Trader consensus around 30-34 seats reflects the narrow band of plausible outcomes amid volatile late-campaign dynamics and coalition arithmetic.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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