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Politics·Canada

Chicoutimi—Le Fjord By-Election Winner

icon for Chicoutimi—Le Fjord By-Election Winner
Politics·Canada

Chicoutimi—Le Fjord By-Election Winner

Daniel Gobeil 70%

Caroline Dubé 26%

Régis Gaudreault 3.0%

Polymarket

$38,535 Vol.

Daniel Gobeil 70%

Caroline Dubé 26%

Régis Gaudreault 3.0%

Polymarket

$38,535 Vol.

icon for Daniel Gobeil

Daniel Gobeil

$18,320 Vol.

70%

icon for Caroline Dubé

Caroline Dubé

$11,777 Vol.

26%

icon for Régis Gaudreault

Régis Gaudreault

$8,439 Vol.

3%

A by-election for the Canadian federal electoral district of Chicoutimi—Le Fjord is currently scheduled to be held on August 31, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Chicoutimi—Le Fjord by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/).Daniel Gobeil, the Liberal candidate and regional dairy farming leader with ties to Producteurs de lait du Québec, holds the strongest trader consensus in this August 31, 2026, federal by-election following the Senate appointment of former Conservative MP Richard Martel. The riding’s narrow three-way result in the prior general election, combined with Gobeil’s early nomination and emphasis on supply management issues relevant to local agricultural voters, supports his elevated implied probability. Caroline Dubé of the Bloc Québécois and Régis Gaudreault of the Conservatives remain the main challengers in a contest where recent riding-level polling has shown tight margins among the three parties and where turnout dynamics in the Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean region could still shift outcomes. Other declared candidates trail with minimal market pricing.

A by-election for the Canadian federal electoral district of Chicoutimi—Le Fjord is currently scheduled to be held on August 31, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Chicoutimi—Le Fjord by-election.

If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/).
Volume
$38,535
End Date
Aug 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 6:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for the Canadian federal electoral district of Chicoutimi—Le Fjord is currently scheduled to be held on August 31, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Chicoutimi—Le Fjord by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/).
A by-election for the Canadian federal electoral district of Chicoutimi—Le Fjord is currently scheduled to be held on August 31, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Chicoutimi—Le Fjord by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/).Daniel Gobeil, the Liberal candidate and regional dairy farming leader with ties to Producteurs de lait du Québec, holds the strongest trader consensus in this August 31, 2026, federal by-election following the Senate appointment of former Conservative MP Richard Martel. The riding’s narrow three-way result in the prior general election, combined with Gobeil’s early nomination and emphasis on supply management issues relevant to local agricultural voters, supports his elevated implied probability. Caroline Dubé of the Bloc Québécois and Régis Gaudreault of the Conservatives remain the main challengers in a contest where recent riding-level polling has shown tight margins among the three parties and where turnout dynamics in the Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean region could still shift outcomes. Other declared candidates trail with minimal market pricing.

A by-election for the Canadian federal electoral district of Chicoutimi—Le Fjord is currently scheduled to be held on August 31, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Chicoutimi—Le Fjord by-election.

If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/).
Volume
$38,535
End Date
Aug 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 6:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for the Canadian federal electoral district of Chicoutimi—Le Fjord is currently scheduled to be held on August 31, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Chicoutimi—Le Fjord by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Chicoutimi—Le Fjord By-Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Daniel Gobeil" at 70%, followed by "Caroline Dubé" at 26%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 70¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 70% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Chicoutimi—Le Fjord By-Election Winner" has generated $38.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 29, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Chicoutimi—Le Fjord By-Election Winner," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Chicoutimi—Le Fjord By-Election Winner" is "Daniel Gobeil" at 70%, meaning the market assigns a 70% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Caroline Dubé" at 26%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Chicoutimi—Le Fjord By-Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.