The North Vancouver—Capilano federal by-election on August 31, 2026, follows the resignation of longtime Liberal MP Jonathan Wilkinson after his appointment as ambassador to the European Union. Braeden Caley, the Liberal nominee and former deputy chief of staff to Prime Minister Mark Carney, benefits from the riding’s consistent Liberal support—nearly 60% in the 2025 general election—and direct ties to the governing party’s platform on economic resilience, housing, and infrastructure. Conservative Stephen Curran, who ran in 2025, and smaller-party candidates face structural disadvantages in a safe seat with limited national visibility. Advance polls opened August 21 amid low expected turnout typical of by-elections. Trader consensus at 98.4% for Caley reflects these incumbency and party advantages; a reversal would require an unprecedented late swing driven by turnout anomalies, candidate-specific developments, or broader national shifts within the final days.