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icon for FL-19 Republican Primary Winner

FL-19 Republican Primary Winner

icon for FL-19 Republican Primary Winner

FL-19 Republican Primary Winner

Madison Cawthorn <1%

Bob Rommel <1%

Spencer Roach <1%

Polymarket

$192,694 Vol.

Madison Cawthorn <1%

Bob Rommel <1%

Spencer Roach <1%

Polymarket

$192,694 Vol.

icon for Madison Cawthorn

Madison Cawthorn

$11,171 Vol.

<1%

icon for Bob Rommel

Bob Rommel

$20,302 Vol.

<1%

icon for Spencer Roach

Spencer Roach

$18,818 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Jim Schwartzel captured the Republican nomination for Florida’s 19th Congressional District in the August 18 primary, securing roughly 29 percent of the vote in a ten-candidate field and finishing well ahead of Trump-endorsed Catalina Lauf and the remaining contenders. As a Naples native, radio-station owner, and local businessman with no prior elected office, Schwartzel benefited from strong name recognition inside the district, substantial fundraising, and endorsements such as House Majority Leader Steve Scalise that reinforced his America First positioning. The open seat created by Byron Donalds’ gubernatorial bid drew multiple out-of-state challengers whose campaigns failed to consolidate support. With results called by the Associated Press and confirmed across major outlets, trader consensus at 100 percent reflects the completed vote tally; realistic shifts would require an official recount reversal or successful legal challenge, both considered improbable given the margin and rapid certification timeline.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$192,694
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 6:46 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Jim Schwartzel captured the Republican nomination for Florida’s 19th Congressional District in the August 18 primary, securing roughly 29 percent of the vote in a ten-candidate field and finishing well ahead of Trump-endorsed Catalina Lauf and the remaining contenders. As a Naples native, radio-station owner, and local businessman with no prior elected office, Schwartzel benefited from strong name recognition inside the district, substantial fundraising, and endorsements such as House Majority Leader Steve Scalise that reinforced his America First positioning. The open seat created by Byron Donalds’ gubernatorial bid drew multiple out-of-state challengers whose campaigns failed to consolidate support. With results called by the Associated Press and confirmed across major outlets, trader consensus at 100 percent reflects the completed vote tally; realistic shifts would require an official recount reversal or successful legal challenge, both considered improbable given the margin and rapid certification timeline.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$192,694
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 6:46 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"FL-19 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Jim Schwartzel" at 100%, followed by "Madison Cawthorn" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "FL-19 Republican Primary Winner" has generated $192.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 25, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "FL-19 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "FL-19 Republican Primary Winner" is "Jim Schwartzel" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Madison Cawthorn" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "FL-19 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.