Florida's 19th congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+14, reflecting consistent Republican advantages in recent presidential voting and placing it among the state's most reliably GOP-leaning seats. The open contest, following incumbent Byron Donalds' gubernatorial bid, saw Jim Schwartzel secure the Republican nomination in the August 18 primary while Victor Arias advanced for Democrats. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican based on these structural factors. Trader consensus at 94.5% Republican probability aligns with this baseline, though late developments such as candidate withdrawal, major scandal, or unexpected turnout shifts in the November 3 general election could still alter the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFL-19 House Election Winner
FL-19 House Election Winner
$17,791 Vol.
$17,791 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
95%
Democratic Party
6%
$17,791 Vol.
$17,791 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$6,159 Vol.
95%
Democratic Party
$11,632 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Florida's 19th congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+14, reflecting consistent Republican advantages in recent presidential voting and placing it among the state's most reliably GOP-leaning seats. The open contest, following incumbent Byron Donalds' gubernatorial bid, saw Jim Schwartzel secure the Republican nomination in the August 18 primary while Victor Arias advanced for Democrats. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican based on these structural factors. Trader consensus at 94.5% Republican probability aligns with this baseline, though late developments such as candidate withdrawal, major scandal, or unexpected turnout shifts in the November 3 general election could still alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 10:58 AM ET
Volume
$17,791End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:58 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Florida's 19th congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+14, reflecting consistent Republican advantages in recent presidential voting and placing it among the state's most reliably GOP-leaning seats. The open contest, following incumbent Byron Donalds' gubernatorial bid, saw Jim Schwartzel secure the Republican nomination in the August 18 primary while Victor Arias advanced for Democrats. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican based on these structural factors. Trader consensus at 94.5% Republican probability aligns with this baseline, though late developments such as candidate withdrawal, major scandal, or unexpected turnout shifts in the November 3 general election could still alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$17,791End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:58 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Florida's 19th congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+14, reflecting consistent Republican advantages in recent presidential voting and placing it among the state's most reliably GOP-leaning seats. The open contest, following incumbent Byron Donalds' gubernatorial bid, saw Jim Schwartzel secure the Republican nomination in the August 18 primary while Victor Arias advanced for Democrats. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican based on these structural factors. Trader consensus at 94.5% Republican probability aligns with this baseline, though late developments such as candidate withdrawal, major scandal, or unexpected turnout shifts in the November 3 general election could still alter the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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