Eduardo Braide (PSD) holds the lead in trader pricing for the 2026 Maranhão gubernatorial race, reflecting recent polling from July showing him at 44% in a first-round scenario against Orleans Brandão (MDB) at 31%, with a 52-38 edge in a potential runoff. The contest pits two cousins from established political families against each other amid a split in the center-left governing coalition that has weakened support for the PT candidate Felipe Camarão. This fragmentation, combined with Braide’s resignation from the São Luís mayoralty to run, has consolidated voter preference around the PSD contender while Brandão benefits from ties to the current MDB administration. Multiple other registered candidates remain far behind in surveys, keeping the race focused on these two frontrunners. With the first round still weeks away and turnout dynamics undecided, traders price in a competitive outcome sensitive to late campaign shifts or coalition realignments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedEduardo Braide 58%
Orleans Brandão 32%
Felipe Camarão <1%
André Luís <1%
$60,987 Vol.
$60,987 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Eduardo Braide
64%
Orleans Brandão
32%
Felipe Camarão
1%
André Luís
<1%
Lahesio Bonfim
<1%
Enilton Rodrigues
<1%
Eduardo Braide 58%
Orleans Brandão 32%
Felipe Camarão <1%
André Luís <1%
$60,987 Vol.
$60,987 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Eduardo Braide
$28,713 Vol.
64%
Orleans Brandão
$13,187 Vol.
32%
Felipe Camarão
$4,791 Vol.
1%
André Luís
$5,439 Vol.
<1%
Lahesio Bonfim
$4,105 Vol.
<1%
Enilton Rodrigues
$4,753 Vol.
<1%
The Maranhão gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Eduardo Braide (PSD) holds the lead in trader pricing for the 2026 Maranhão gubernatorial race, reflecting recent polling from July showing him at 44% in a first-round scenario against Orleans Brandão (MDB) at 31%, with a 52-38 edge in a potential runoff. The contest pits two cousins from established political families against each other amid a split in the center-left governing coalition that has weakened support for the PT candidate Felipe Camarão. This fragmentation, combined with Braide’s resignation from the São Luís mayoralty to run, has consolidated voter preference around the PSD contender while Brandão benefits from ties to the current MDB administration. Multiple other registered candidates remain far behind in surveys, keeping the race focused on these two frontrunners. With the first round still weeks away and turnout dynamics undecided, traders price in a competitive outcome sensitive to late campaign shifts or coalition realignments.
The Maranhão gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Jun 12, 2026, 10:38 AM ET
Volume
$60,987End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Jun 12, 2026, 10:38 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Maranhão gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Eduardo Braide (PSD) holds the lead in trader pricing for the 2026 Maranhão gubernatorial race, reflecting recent polling from July showing him at 44% in a first-round scenario against Orleans Brandão (MDB) at 31%, with a 52-38 edge in a potential runoff. The contest pits two cousins from established political families against each other amid a split in the center-left governing coalition that has weakened support for the PT candidate Felipe Camarão. This fragmentation, combined with Braide’s resignation from the São Luís mayoralty to run, has consolidated voter preference around the PSD contender while Brandão benefits from ties to the current MDB administration. Multiple other registered candidates remain far behind in surveys, keeping the race focused on these two frontrunners. With the first round still weeks away and turnout dynamics undecided, traders price in a competitive outcome sensitive to late campaign shifts or coalition realignments.
The Maranhão gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$60,987End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Jun 12, 2026, 10:38 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Eduardo Braide (PSD) holds the lead in trader pricing for the 2026 Maranhão gubernatorial race, reflecting recent polling from July showing him at 44% in a first-round scenario against Orleans Brandão (MDB) at 31%, with a 52-38 edge in a potential runoff. The contest pits two cousins from established political families against each other amid a split in the center-left governing coalition that has weakened support for the PT candidate Felipe Camarão. This fragmentation, combined with Braide’s resignation from the São Luís mayoralty to run, has consolidated voter preference around the PSD contender while Brandão benefits from ties to the current MDB administration. Multiple other registered candidates remain far behind in surveys, keeping the race focused on these two frontrunners. With the first round still weeks away and turnout dynamics undecided, traders price in a competitive outcome sensitive to late campaign shifts or coalition realignments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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