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Politics·Brazil

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Rondônia

icon for Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Rondônia
Politics·Brazil

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Rondônia

Flavio Bolsonaro 97.2%

Escritor Augusto Cury <1%

Renan Santos <1%

Pablo Marçal <1%

Polymarket

$12,992 Vol.

Flavio Bolsonaro 97.2%

Escritor Augusto Cury <1%

Renan Santos <1%

Pablo Marçal <1%

Polymarket

$12,992 Vol.

icon for Flavio Bolsonaro

Flavio Bolsonaro

$7,561 Vol.

97%

icon for Escritor Augusto Cury

Escritor Augusto Cury

$451 Vol.

1%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$381 Vol.

1%

icon for Pablo Marçal

Pablo Marçal

$491 Vol.

1%

icon for Samara

Samara

$461 Vol.

1%

icon for Edmilson Costa

Edmilson Costa

$411 Vol.

<1%

icon for Lula

Lula

$577 Vol.

<1%

icon for Veterinário Wilson Grassi

Veterinário Wilson Grassi

$430 Vol.

<1%

icon for Clariana Barao

Clariana Barao

$401 Vol.

<1%

icon for Zema

Zema

$441 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$471 Vol.

<1%

icon for Rui Costa Pimenta

Rui Costa Pimenta

$471 Vol.

<1%

icon for Hertz Dias

Hertz Dias

$444 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rondônia, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in Rondônia trader consensus for first place in the October 2026 first round, reflecting the state's consistent conservative tilt. In 2022 Jair Bolsonaro captured over 70% of valid votes there, and a July 2026 Real Time Big Data survey showed Flávio at 58% against Lula's 25%, with Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Romeu Zema far behind. Local PL coordination, including senatorial candidate Marcos Rogério's role in the presidential effort, reinforces the advantage amid low Lula approval in the region. Other declared candidates remain marginal in state-specific data. Late national polling shifts, turnout surprises, or unforeseen events could narrow margins, though current indicators point to structural barriers for challengers.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rondônia, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$12,992
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rondônia, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rondônia, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in Rondônia trader consensus for first place in the October 2026 first round, reflecting the state's consistent conservative tilt. In 2022 Jair Bolsonaro captured over 70% of valid votes there, and a July 2026 Real Time Big Data survey showed Flávio at 58% against Lula's 25%, with Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Romeu Zema far behind. Local PL coordination, including senatorial candidate Marcos Rogério's role in the presidential effort, reinforces the advantage amid low Lula approval in the region. Other declared candidates remain marginal in state-specific data. Late national polling shifts, turnout surprises, or unforeseen events could narrow margins, though current indicators point to structural barriers for challengers.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rondônia, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$12,992
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rondônia, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Rondônia" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Flavio Bolsonaro" at 97%, followed by "Escritor Augusto Cury" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 97¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 97% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Rondônia" has generated $13K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 17, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Rondônia," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Rondônia" is "Flavio Bolsonaro" at 97%, meaning the market assigns a 97% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Escritor Augusto Cury" at 1%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Rondônia" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.