Marília Arraes (PDT) holds the strongest trader consensus for first place in Pernambuco’s 2026 Senate race at 68%, reflecting her consistent leads in recent polling and alliance with ex-Recife mayor João Campos (PSB) and incumbent Humberto Costa (PT) on the state’s leading chapa. The latest Datafolha survey, conducted August 18–21 after the official campaign launch, placed her numerically ahead at 15% in a technical four-way tie with Costa (14%), Mendonça Filho (PL, 12%), and Eduardo da Fonte (PP, 11%), while earlier Real Time and Genial/Quaest polls showed similar positioning. Her visibility as the sole female candidate, prior statewide runs, and alignment with the “chapa de Lula” in Pernambuco bolster this edge, though high undecided and blank/null shares (over 30% combined) leave room for shifts before October voting. Other listed contenders remain at sharply lower implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMarília Arraes 68%
Humberto Costa 19.8%
Mendonça Filho 5.3%
Mailson da Silva Neto <1%
$18,578 Vol.
$18,578 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Marília Arraes
68%
Humberto Costa
20%
Mendonça Filho
5%
Mailson da Silva Neto
1%
Paulo Rubem Santiago
1%
Carlos Sant'Anna
1%
Gorett Bitu
1%
Pastor Gilvan Costa
1%
Eduardo da Fonte
1%
Samuel Timoteo
<1%
Mariano Macedo
<1%
Túlio Gadêlha
<1%
Marília Arraes 68%
Humberto Costa 19.8%
Mendonça Filho 5.3%
Mailson da Silva Neto <1%
$18,578 Vol.
$18,578 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Marília Arraes
$9,180 Vol.
68%
Humberto Costa
$5,100 Vol.
20%
Mendonça Filho
$981 Vol.
5%
Mailson da Silva Neto
$372 Vol.
1%
Paulo Rubem Santiago
$344 Vol.
1%
Carlos Sant'Anna
$351 Vol.
1%
Gorett Bitu
$344 Vol.
1%
Pastor Gilvan Costa
$344 Vol.
1%
Eduardo da Fonte
$341 Vol.
1%
Samuel Timoteo
$382 Vol.
<1%
Mariano Macedo
$470 Vol.
<1%
Túlio Gadêlha
$368 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Marília Arraes (PDT) holds the strongest trader consensus for first place in Pernambuco’s 2026 Senate race at 68%, reflecting her consistent leads in recent polling and alliance with ex-Recife mayor João Campos (PSB) and incumbent Humberto Costa (PT) on the state’s leading chapa. The latest Datafolha survey, conducted August 18–21 after the official campaign launch, placed her numerically ahead at 15% in a technical four-way tie with Costa (14%), Mendonça Filho (PL, 12%), and Eduardo da Fonte (PP, 11%), while earlier Real Time and Genial/Quaest polls showed similar positioning. Her visibility as the sole female candidate, prior statewide runs, and alignment with the “chapa de Lula” in Pernambuco bolster this edge, though high undecided and blank/null shares (over 30% combined) leave room for shifts before October voting. Other listed contenders remain at sharply lower implied probabilities.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ET
Volume
$18,578End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Marília Arraes (PDT) holds the strongest trader consensus for first place in Pernambuco’s 2026 Senate race at 68%, reflecting her consistent leads in recent polling and alliance with ex-Recife mayor João Campos (PSB) and incumbent Humberto Costa (PT) on the state’s leading chapa. The latest Datafolha survey, conducted August 18–21 after the official campaign launch, placed her numerically ahead at 15% in a technical four-way tie with Costa (14%), Mendonça Filho (PL, 12%), and Eduardo da Fonte (PP, 11%), while earlier Real Time and Genial/Quaest polls showed similar positioning. Her visibility as the sole female candidate, prior statewide runs, and alignment with the “chapa de Lula” in Pernambuco bolster this edge, though high undecided and blank/null shares (over 30% combined) leave room for shifts before October voting. Other listed contenders remain at sharply lower implied probabilities.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$18,578End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Marília Arraes (PDT) holds the strongest trader consensus for first place in Pernambuco’s 2026 Senate race at 68%, reflecting her consistent leads in recent polling and alliance with ex-Recife mayor João Campos (PSB) and incumbent Humberto Costa (PT) on the state’s leading chapa. The latest Datafolha survey, conducted August 18–21 after the official campaign launch, placed her numerically ahead at 15% in a technical four-way tie with Costa (14%), Mendonça Filho (PL, 12%), and Eduardo da Fonte (PP, 11%), while earlier Real Time and Genial/Quaest polls showed similar positioning. Her visibility as the sole female candidate, prior statewide runs, and alignment with the “chapa de Lula” in Pernambuco bolster this edge, though high undecided and blank/null shares (over 30% combined) leave room for shifts before October voting. Other listed contenders remain at sharply lower implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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