Recent polls for Maranhão’s two Senate seats show a fragmented field, with Roseana Sarney (MDB) consistently leading first-place intentions at 24-26% while André Fufuca (PP), Lahesio Bonfim, and incumbent Weverton Rocha (PDT) cluster tightly behind in the 12-20% range. Fufuca’s edge in the second-place market reflects stronger showings in consolidated surveys testing multiple names, though Weverton’s name recognition and Bonfim’s regional strength keep the outcome fluid. Sarney’s July pre-candidacy announcement and ongoing MDB mobilization have stabilized her position without yet clarifying the battle for runner-up. With six weeks until the October 4 vote, minor polling shifts, candidate alliances, or turnout differences among key municipalities could quickly reorder the lower tier and alter implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMaranhão Senate Election: 2nd Place
Maranhão Senate Election: 2nd Place
Fufuca 31%
Roseana Sarney 26%
Weverton Rocha 14%
Lahesio Bonfim 9.8%
$14,591 Vol.
$14,591 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Fufuca
31%
Roseana Sarney
26%
Weverton Rocha
14%
Lahesio Bonfim
20%
Eliziane Gama
4%
Raimundo Moreira
4%
Enilton Rodrigues
4%
Wilson Leite
1%
Dr. Hilton Gonçalo
1%
Simplício Araújo
<1%
Cidônio Gonçalves
<1%
Fufuca 31%
Roseana Sarney 26%
Weverton Rocha 14%
Lahesio Bonfim 9.8%
$14,591 Vol.
$14,591 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Fufuca
$1,588 Vol.
31%
Roseana Sarney
$1,793 Vol.
26%
Weverton Rocha
$7,110 Vol.
14%
Lahesio Bonfim
$761 Vol.
20%
Eliziane Gama
$562 Vol.
4%
Raimundo Moreira
$430 Vol.
4%
Enilton Rodrigues
$482 Vol.
4%
Wilson Leite
$442 Vol.
1%
Dr. Hilton Gonçalo
$422 Vol.
1%
Simplício Araújo
$567 Vol.
<1%
Cidônio Gonçalves
$436 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Maranhão is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polls for Maranhão’s two Senate seats show a fragmented field, with Roseana Sarney (MDB) consistently leading first-place intentions at 24-26% while André Fufuca (PP), Lahesio Bonfim, and incumbent Weverton Rocha (PDT) cluster tightly behind in the 12-20% range. Fufuca’s edge in the second-place market reflects stronger showings in consolidated surveys testing multiple names, though Weverton’s name recognition and Bonfim’s regional strength keep the outcome fluid. Sarney’s July pre-candidacy announcement and ongoing MDB mobilization have stabilized her position without yet clarifying the battle for runner-up. With six weeks until the October 4 vote, minor polling shifts, candidate alliances, or turnout differences among key municipalities could quickly reorder the lower tier and alter implied probabilities.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Maranhão is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:00 AM ET
Volume
$14,591End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:00 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Maranhão is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polls for Maranhão’s two Senate seats show a fragmented field, with Roseana Sarney (MDB) consistently leading first-place intentions at 24-26% while André Fufuca (PP), Lahesio Bonfim, and incumbent Weverton Rocha (PDT) cluster tightly behind in the 12-20% range. Fufuca’s edge in the second-place market reflects stronger showings in consolidated surveys testing multiple names, though Weverton’s name recognition and Bonfim’s regional strength keep the outcome fluid. Sarney’s July pre-candidacy announcement and ongoing MDB mobilization have stabilized her position without yet clarifying the battle for runner-up. With six weeks until the October 4 vote, minor polling shifts, candidate alliances, or turnout differences among key municipalities could quickly reorder the lower tier and alter implied probabilities.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Maranhão is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$14,591End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:00 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls for Maranhão’s two Senate seats show a fragmented field, with Roseana Sarney (MDB) consistently leading first-place intentions at 24-26% while André Fufuca (PP), Lahesio Bonfim, and incumbent Weverton Rocha (PDT) cluster tightly behind in the 12-20% range. Fufuca’s edge in the second-place market reflects stronger showings in consolidated surveys testing multiple names, though Weverton’s name recognition and Bonfim’s regional strength keep the outcome fluid. Sarney’s July pre-candidacy announcement and ongoing MDB mobilization have stabilized her position without yet clarifying the battle for runner-up. With six weeks until the October 4 vote, minor polling shifts, candidate alliances, or turnout differences among key municipalities could quickly reorder the lower tier and alter implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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