Janaina Riva (MDB) leads the market for second place in Mato Grosso’s October 4 Senate election at 56.5% implied probability, reflecting consistent polling showing her ahead of a crowded field that includes Carlos Fávaro (PSD), José Medeiros (PL), Pedro Taques (PSB), and Antônio Galvan (Avante). Early August party conventions formalized her candidacy alongside Mauro Mendes (União Brasil), who dominates first-vote and consolidated scenarios across Real Time Big Data, MT Dados, and other surveys conducted through mid-August. Riva’s established base as a three-term state deputy and former assembly president supports her edge in second-vote projections, while elevated undecided shares and fragmented support for challengers keep separation narrow. Late-campaign shifts in turnout or alliances could still alter the order among mid-tier contenders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedJanaina Riva 55%
Mauro Mendes 32%
Jose Medeiros 7%
Fávaro 5.9%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Janaina Riva
55%
Mauro Mendes
32%
Jose Medeiros
7%
Fávaro
6%
Galvan
6%
Beny Godoy
3%
Margareth Buzetti
3%
Coronel Darwin
3%
Professor Nelson Ferreira
1%
Pedro Taques
1%
Janaina Riva 55%
Mauro Mendes 32%
Jose Medeiros 7%
Fávaro 5.9%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Janaina Riva
$4,044 Vol.
55%
Mauro Mendes
$587 Vol.
32%
Jose Medeiros
$114 Vol.
7%
Fávaro
$96 Vol.
6%
Galvan
$96 Vol.
6%
Beny Godoy
$96 Vol.
3%
Margareth Buzetti
$96 Vol.
3%
Coronel Darwin
$96 Vol.
3%
Professor Nelson Ferreira
$96 Vol.
1%
Pedro Taques
$96 Vol.
1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Janaina Riva (MDB) leads the market for second place in Mato Grosso’s October 4 Senate election at 56.5% implied probability, reflecting consistent polling showing her ahead of a crowded field that includes Carlos Fávaro (PSD), José Medeiros (PL), Pedro Taques (PSB), and Antônio Galvan (Avante). Early August party conventions formalized her candidacy alongside Mauro Mendes (União Brasil), who dominates first-vote and consolidated scenarios across Real Time Big Data, MT Dados, and other surveys conducted through mid-August. Riva’s established base as a three-term state deputy and former assembly president supports her edge in second-vote projections, while elevated undecided shares and fragmented support for challengers keep separation narrow. Late-campaign shifts in turnout or alliances could still alter the order among mid-tier contenders.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
Volume
$5,413End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Janaina Riva (MDB) leads the market for second place in Mato Grosso’s October 4 Senate election at 56.5% implied probability, reflecting consistent polling showing her ahead of a crowded field that includes Carlos Fávaro (PSD), José Medeiros (PL), Pedro Taques (PSB), and Antônio Galvan (Avante). Early August party conventions formalized her candidacy alongside Mauro Mendes (União Brasil), who dominates first-vote and consolidated scenarios across Real Time Big Data, MT Dados, and other surveys conducted through mid-August. Riva’s established base as a three-term state deputy and former assembly president supports her edge in second-vote projections, while elevated undecided shares and fragmented support for challengers keep separation narrow. Late-campaign shifts in turnout or alliances could still alter the order among mid-tier contenders.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$5,413End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Janaina Riva (MDB) leads the market for second place in Mato Grosso’s October 4 Senate election at 56.5% implied probability, reflecting consistent polling showing her ahead of a crowded field that includes Carlos Fávaro (PSD), José Medeiros (PL), Pedro Taques (PSB), and Antônio Galvan (Avante). Early August party conventions formalized her candidacy alongside Mauro Mendes (União Brasil), who dominates first-vote and consolidated scenarios across Real Time Big Data, MT Dados, and other surveys conducted through mid-August. Riva’s established base as a three-term state deputy and former assembly president supports her edge in second-vote projections, while elevated undecided shares and fragmented support for challengers keep separation narrow. Late-campaign shifts in turnout or alliances could still alter the order among mid-tier contenders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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